Weather · resolved market
Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840ae4f464a509c0b66219f5c9b478d137bf3b33f46dce3aa2aa303d65a7c49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 14,323$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…3d12backed Yes | 10c | 4,140$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…e43abacked Yes | 7c | 3,890$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,804$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…4ee6backed Yes | 4c | 2,730$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…d7cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,517$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f74…0c67backed Yes | 6c | 2,392$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,763$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,675$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,301$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6106…d0afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,284$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…59acbacked Yes | 2c | 1,232$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,013$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…40dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,009$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…a1d8backed Yes | 5c | 766.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…995ebacked Yes | 6c | 613.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b1…b015backed Yes | 4c | 558.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd767…57e3backed Yes | 2c | 481.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585e…c919backed Yes | 5c | 377.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7da…e4bbbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…85abbacked Yes | 55c | 191.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…5e1cbacked Yes | 8c | 175.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 27c | 148$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 9c | 122.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed Yes | 30c | 114.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed No | 70c | 48.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…339ebacked No | 21c | 48.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…851abacked No | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…384ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.