Weather · resolved market
Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeda3d227c185ffee574d11b3c62040940878ddb1ffc6930896fe1f8b212e02e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 11,249$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 8c | 7,005$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.76 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,964$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,304$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,048$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,875$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 3c | 1,780$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 16c | 1,565$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 19c | 1,515$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 1,499$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…7d1ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,253$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…e23ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33f…fb54backed Yes | 1c | 1,223$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,029$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 982.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 31c | 760.78$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 17c | 741.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7da…e4bbbacked Yes | 8c | 688.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…0fecbacked Yes | 19c | 657.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 13c | 569.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 17c | 517.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 77c | 514.37$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 24c | 489.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 428.95$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 416.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 399.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…7af3backed No | 79c | 348.77$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 12c | 324.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed Yes | 35c | 252.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 6c | 250.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 12c | 228.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 7c | 224.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked No | 69c | 221.07$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 17c | 219.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 171.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 8c | 155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 9c | 149$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 138.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 18c | 132.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 29c | 128.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…8fa5backed No | 79c | 118.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…ac75backed Yes | 30c | 115.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…afdebacked Yes | 19c | 114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…1f7dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…f1b0backed Yes | 19c | 106.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Yes | 15c | 95.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…da84backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 13c | 89.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 28c | 72.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 64.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…2222backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3181…0d57backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…a1d8backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…0126backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 33c | 52.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89be…f988backed Yes | 20c | 50.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb26…89aebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b39…5163backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…b3f7backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed No | 70c | 48.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…be3fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…a5b1backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7b…b573backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…bd1fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…53f8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.