TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$449,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$412,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $449,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40c9…664dbacked Yes1c37,372$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Yes1c26,846$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes1c26,500$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes4c18,705$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.627223.6%17 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4022…f352backed Yes1c17,400$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes4c11,400$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.751,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked No63c10,147$6,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,764.31475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7938…95ccbacked Yes1c10,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2d…be6cbacked Yes53c7,638$4,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,078.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes19c7,598$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.13944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes18c6,246$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+40.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes13c5,709$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fd…4d36backed Yes11c5,601$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Yes29c4,714$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+70%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa64d…00aebacked Yes66c4,206$2,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,786.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes51c4,001$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed No79c3,933$3,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,217$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-70.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed Yes65c2,579$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes69c2,250$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes25c2,222$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-28.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3fc0…cebcbacked Yes21c2,099$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…4e11backed Yes54c1,873$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaaf…620abacked Yes54c1,870$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c36…207dbacked No77c1,857$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes58c1,651$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.226,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes15c1,588$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Yes46c1,557$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Yes17c1,529$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.46425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe085…cd9abacked Yes26c1,501$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Yes55c1,500$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.69137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.33per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1953…5170backed Yes30c1,432$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.06922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes14c1,420$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6233620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No56c1,317$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.0858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes10c1,315$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9239810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No78c1,259$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.286440.6%26 W · 38 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No66c1,250$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848f…ffd8backed No39c1,192$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x334c…46bfbacked Yes45c1,116$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d89…36f5backed Yes23c1,115$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+155.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…6786backed Yes18c1,100$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4536…2826backed Yes9c1,092$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfa…79babacked Yes47c1,072$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+61%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…c865backed No75c1,007$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes20c979.79$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes54c968.66$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x776b…1611backed Yes65c933.92$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.382944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5c…a097backed Yes54c929.45$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c86…c427backed No49c849.58$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025d…14fcbacked Yes37c795.51$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes67c768.79$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc0…1792backed Yes13c757.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+275%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8004…cd61backed Yes69c723.62$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No65c663.02$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2332133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked Yes28c650$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc75…c3f9backed Yes17c640.08$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked No58c616.89$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.524548.9%22 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes2c610$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d3…6eabbacked Yes5c582.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked Yes36c550.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b26…cfc5backed Yes55c548.37$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes59c530$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.211731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa0a8…03b6backed No57c529.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x873c…2beabacked Yes19c526.37$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes61c480$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06ad…74e1backed Yes71c480$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x907b…e465backed No20c449.97$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8191…2528backed Yes65c437.37$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No26c431.32$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.4734617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes48c430.1$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.462,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56a…525dbacked Yes3c427$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No69c419$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes22c412.64$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Yes59c401.7$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No78c396.28$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2641…062fbacked Yes19c377.33$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked No72c363.41$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c362.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes10c355$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes30c338.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc528…da27backed No73c334.5$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+89.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes4c312.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+191.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No29c311.93$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2615818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…bd2ebacked No79c304.55$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No57c303.23$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7817042.9%73 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No53c303.16$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5898160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239d…f8a5backed No6c300$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes27c299.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes40c290.41$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.971947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes27c290.17$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.041533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked No23c285.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.421450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9044…6364backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+166.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e73…1363backed No19c273.96$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes34c262.69$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0843713.3%58 W · 379 L-78.8wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.