Weather · resolved market
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2c8d449e51c5afb0077ec515e8081ee4ebd8f81c656cdff8d583ee2da854beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $449,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $412,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $449,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked Yes | 1c | 37,372$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Yes | 1c | 26,846$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 1c | 26,500$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 4c | 18,705$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.62 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…f352backed Yes | 1c | 17,400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 11,400$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.75 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked No | 63c | 10,147$6,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…be6cbacked Yes | 53c | 7,638$4,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,078.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 19c | 7,598$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 18c | 6,246$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 13c | 5,709$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…4d36backed Yes | 11c | 5,601$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 29c | 4,714$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +70%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64d…00aebacked Yes | 66c | 4,206$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 51c | 4,001$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed No | 79c | 3,933$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Yes | 65c | 2,579$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 69c | 2,250$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,222$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…cebcbacked Yes | 21c | 2,099$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…4e11backed Yes | 54c | 1,873$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaf…620abacked Yes | 54c | 1,870$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…207dbacked No | 77c | 1,857$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,651$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 15c | 1,588$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.08 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 46c | 1,557$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,529$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…cd9abacked Yes | 26c | 1,501$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 55c | 1,500$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.69 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 30c | 1,432$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 14c | 1,420$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 1,317$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.08 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 1,315$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 1,259$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.28 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 66c | 1,250$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…ffd8backed No | 39c | 1,192$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…46bfbacked Yes | 45c | 1,116$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed Yes | 23c | 1,115$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…6786backed Yes | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…2826backed Yes | 9c | 1,092$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…79babacked Yes | 47c | 1,072$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…c865backed No | 75c | 1,007$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 20c | 979.79$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 54c | 968.66$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed Yes | 65c | 933.92$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…a097backed Yes | 54c | 929.45$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 49c | 849.58$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…14fcbacked Yes | 37c | 795.51$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 67c | 768.79$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…1792backed Yes | 13c | 757.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +275%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 69c | 723.62$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 663.02$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.23 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Yes | 28c | 650$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…c3f9backed Yes | 17c | 640.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked No | 58c | 616.89$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 2c | 610$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…6eabbacked Yes | 5c | 582.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…026ebacked Yes | 36c | 550.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b26…cfc5backed Yes | 55c | 548.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 59c | 530$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.2 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…03b6backed No | 57c | 529.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…2beabacked Yes | 19c | 526.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 61c | 480$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ad…74e1backed Yes | 71c | 480$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907b…e465backed No | 20c | 449.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…2528backed Yes | 65c | 437.37$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 26c | 431.32$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.47 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 430.1$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56a…525dbacked Yes | 3c | 427$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 69c | 419$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 22c | 412.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed Yes | 59c | 401.7$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 78c | 396.28$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked Yes | 19c | 377.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 72c | 363.41$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 362.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 10c | 355$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 30c | 338.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…da27backed No | 73c | 334.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 4c | 312.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 311.93$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.26 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…bd2ebacked No | 79c | 304.55$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 57c | 303.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 53c | 303.16$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 40c | 290.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 27c | 290.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked No | 23c | 285.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…6364backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…1363backed No | 19c | 273.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 262.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.