Weather · resolved market
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8bdc3f89896825d23dea64fdf47f0fe06c031cd7c9df2f6caa7adcada389c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 65c | 9,470$6,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,287.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 48c | 5,285$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 1c | 5,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,575$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked No | 0c | 3,880$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 15c | 3,689$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…be6cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,578$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,927$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.93 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 2,517$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.79 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 15c | 2,468$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 26c | 2,343$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Yes | 27c | 1,750$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 17c | 1,700$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 38c | 1,668$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 1,651$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,523$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…79babacked Yes | 21c | 1,305$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 21c | 1,301$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 1,192$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 6c | 1,081$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 52c | 1,076$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 31c | 1,049$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…1792backed Yes | 13c | 1,012$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +275%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 27c | 936.67$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 56c | 887.97$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 78c | 841.2$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.16 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Yes | 45c | 839.81$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed No | 28c | 820$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 15c | 775.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +70%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 727.73$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…fa03backed Yes | 34c | 707.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…1beebacked Yes | 56c | 705.8$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 663.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56a…525dbacked No | 2c | 661.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…a097backed Yes | 45c | 606.21$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 585.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Yes | 19c | 517.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 17c | 499.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.98 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 18c | 465.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 17c | 462.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 450.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.58 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 11c | 447.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.26 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 426.75$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 21c | 424.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 59c | 402.43$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.66 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 19c | 396.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 23c | 332.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…cebcbacked No | 21c | 330.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…f71cbacked Yes | 27c | 329.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +273.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…97cebacked Yes | 42c | 317.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 14c | 317.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed Yes | 20c | 312.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed No | 72c | 300$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 65c | 299.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 17c | 286.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…7574backed Yes | 27c | 267.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…5997backed Yes | 76c | 261.09$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…7847backed No | 9c | 260.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b26…cfc5backed Yes | 38c | 260.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…3b5cbacked No | 79c | 259.52$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 20c | 258.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 25c | 256.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 8c | 245.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.93 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 70c | 233.23$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…40dabacked Yes | 12c | 229.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 13c | 218.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +271.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 57c | 218.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 20c | 217.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…1952backed Yes | 30c | 208$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 205.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…9589backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 199.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 190.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 54c | 190.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…e89fbacked No | 75c | 182.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 52c | 175.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Yes | 13c | 174.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 19c | 173.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.26 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…da27backed Yes | 23c | 172.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…6296backed No | 44c | 171.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 15c | 170$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed Yes | 36c | 169.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…2106backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 36c | 154.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 44c | 146$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 143.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 71c | 140.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…9f73backed Yes | 43c | 138.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 47c | 138.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 11c | 138.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…e2dabacked Yes | 43c | 137.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 75c | 133.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…6364backed Yes | 19c | 133.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 79c | 132.51$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 12c | 124.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.