Weather · resolved market
Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98e2e58680f05e6e097e4ee3fe22d5ea2445264846b656d3aa989533269f9476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,294$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164a…1526backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,908$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 1,704$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,675$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 11c | 1,641$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…0fecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,433$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,419$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,414$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7da…e4bbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,109$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…2e16backed Yes | 11c | 1,096$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 16c | 951.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…dd3bbacked Yes | 14c | 711.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 707.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 8c | 614.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…59acbacked Yes | 6c | 486.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…d607backed Yes | 6c | 479.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…4d36backed Yes | 6c | 463.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…7574backed Yes | 8c | 419.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5606…9bd7backed Yes | 27c | 320.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 8c | 320$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +434.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…555abacked Yes | 7c | 214.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 11c | 175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…1f7dbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…85abbacked Yes | 76c | 159.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…be3fbacked Yes | 13c | 115.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…18bdbacked Yes | 10c | 112.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1499…96bdbacked Yes | 11c | 101.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…7d1ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 21c | 59.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…7847backed No | 79c | 30.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.