Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3793093582da62d7edd8615c82ba3b948632f4a57811e9c17cca93f1dce8374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 4,840$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.68 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4f…b9abbacked Yes | 24c | 3,875$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1d…ae7bbacked No | 76c | 1,311$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…b8aebacked No | 76c | 1,309$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…f942backed No | 76c | 1,255$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 15c | 963.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 731.75$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.44 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 719.81$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 5c | 706$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 546.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 499.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 395.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 360$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 309.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 434 | 37.8%164 W · 270 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 22c | 288.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 276.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 22c | 248.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 336 | 35.1%118 W · 218 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 236.45$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 31c | 222.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 19c | 217.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 21c | 209.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 23c | 197.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…5525backed Yes | 37c | 181.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 6c | 181.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 179.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 37c | 176.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 19c | 175.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 27c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 20c | 154.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 46c | 151.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 931 | 34%317 W · 614 L | +53.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Yes | 9c | 149.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 68c | 146.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 144.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 139.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 57c | 132.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 14c | 126.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 22c | 120.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 15c | 115.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 67c | 112.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 334 | 46.4%155 W · 179 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 14c | 109.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 66c | 109.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 209 | 38.3%80 W · 129 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 105.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 105.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 989 | 38%376 W · 613 L | +80.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 16c | 105.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 104.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…5081backed Yes | 19c | 102.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d870backed Yes | 26c | 102.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 27c | 101.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 48c | 100.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 43c | 99.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 98.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…0187backed Yes | 30c | 90.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…8941backed Yes | 42c | 87.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 73c | 83.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 83.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 83.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 14c | 81.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…e71fbacked Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 17c | 74.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 18c | 72.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 18c | 71.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 20c | 65.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 16c | 64.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 63.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed Yes | 34c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 20c | 54.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…5005backed No | 50c | 54.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa130…b662backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 43.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…4791backed No | 80c | 43.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…f440backed Yes | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 30c | 41.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 30.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7f…e270backed No | 75c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.