Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6bf06f1df59bfb3c6535775af4640bda7950ac2bbf1df534de5369a538b547f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 5,543$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,884$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 6c | 1,180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 5c | 1,087$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 584.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 518.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 31c | 382.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 78c | 357.32$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 344.32$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 331.18$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 320.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 318.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 11c | 303.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 300.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 19c | 284.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 248.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 29c | 241.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 237.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 231.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 218.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 19c | 199.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 194.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 12c | 193.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 190.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 8c | 187.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 185$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 181.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 15c | 178.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked Yes | 12c | 174.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 164.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 7c | 161.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 77c | 160.91$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…1e89backed Yes | 33c | 156.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 148.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 10c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 137.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 70c | 132.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 131.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 129.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa130…b662backed Yes | 28c | 120.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 28c | 108.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 20c | 108.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 79c | 107.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…80adbacked Yes | 29c | 107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 14c | 105.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d870backed Yes | 24c | 104.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…89e5backed Yes | 31c | 99.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 95.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 78c | 91.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…0187backed Yes | 14c | 80.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 70c | 80.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 15c | 79.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 73.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 67c | 70.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13bf…544ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…e1efbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed No | 80c | 62.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…6f79backed No | 78c | 57.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…5525backed Yes | 29c | 57.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes | 43c | 56.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 77c | 56.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 55.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…1ed1backed Yes | 36c | 54.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 70c | 54.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 67c | 53.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 46.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…b6a6backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 36c | 45.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 29c | 45.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 68c | 44.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 44.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…fbe3backed Yes | 40c | 42.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 25c | 42.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547e…87a6backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 40.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 50c | 38.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8b…1237backed Yes | 38c | 37.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…72d5backed No | 76c | 36.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…e2a4backed Yes | 47c | 36.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…3490backed Yes | 34c | 34.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 70c | 33.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 31.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…734ebacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.