Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7c770ae9f2d9aec5a8424e54aa09d7b8c231a2ce04bc5f4d1f8cf1114c4714e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 5c | 3,563$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,377.53 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 5c | 3,543$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,359.73 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 31c | 1,203$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.3 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 1,079$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 12c | 1,074$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.98 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed No | 75c | 1,045$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.36 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 37c | 962.33$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.54 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 5c | 847.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.76 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 8c | 724.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.15 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 722.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.03 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 714.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 679.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.21 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 36c | 582.7$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 10c | 517.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 46c | 511.28$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.08 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 22c | 497.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.08 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed No | 76c | 492.15$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 65c | 467.95$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.93 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 443.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 439.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 12c | 430$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.72 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 15c | 386.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 32c | 343.55$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.25 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 6c | 328.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 306.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 304.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.64 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 5c | 299.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.07 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 296.53$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…6f86backed No | 74c | 270.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 255.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.76 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 44c | 246.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 56c | 241.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 52c | 237.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 10c | 232.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed No | 15c | 232.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 62c | 229.64$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 227.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 213.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 7c | 205.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.47 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 38c | 198.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 190.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 19c | 175.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 54c | 164.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 61c | 164.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 22c | 155.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.56 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 7c | 149.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.19 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 48c | 131.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 34c | 126.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 21c | 120.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed No | 77c | 119.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 9c | 117.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 116.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 115.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…10a5backed Yes | 79c | 115.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 15c | 114.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 12c | 104.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 73c | 101.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 54c | 101.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 37c | 96.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 28c | 93.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 53c | 90.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 77c | 71.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…bddcbacked Yes | 46c | 70.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 70c | 66.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 57c | 66.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Yes | 38c | 66.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 54c | 59.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa855…6bfbbacked Yes | 39c | 53.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 52.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…0187backed Yes | 34c | 51.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 26c | 49.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed Yes | 40c | 49.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…5525backed Yes | 39c | 47.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…b195backed Yes | 43c | 44.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 28c | 40.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed No | 60c | 36.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…98d0backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 65c | 34.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 62c | 34.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb05c…f02fbacked No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 66c | 30.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 29.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 70c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b0…b9ccbacked Yes | 38c | 28.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d88…1a05backed Yes | 50c | 28.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…03afbacked Yes | 60c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 21.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.