Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687a4c659d5842ae22e535d59e4382c11d526a61591cd50d6f521e67da4630f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 5,376$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527a…cdbfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,759$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…6647backed Yes | 31c | 2,723$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…31aebacked No | 67c | 1,400$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…a62dbacked No | 69c | 1,366$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…fa90backed No | 67c | 1,359$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…83a7backed No | 69c | 1,357$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,256$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 76c | 886.09$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 21c | 867.22$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…5081backed Yes | 3c | 781.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 75c | 762.23$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.02 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 614.3$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 576.62$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 575.21$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 24c | 470.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed Yes | 45c | 460.23$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 439.19$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 354.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 15c | 325.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 325$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 322.91$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 318.73$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 78c | 271.78$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…5525backed Yes | 34c | 256.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 233.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 204.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 76c | 179.97$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 23c | 178.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 30c | 174.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 68c | 173.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 62c | 173.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 163.63$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 38c | 154.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 39c | 154.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 153.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 9c | 146.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 32c | 145.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…f440backed Yes | 28c | 140.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 31c | 137.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 38c | 135.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 134$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 28c | 133.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 132.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked No | 78c | 127.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 38c | 119.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 40c | 117.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5e37backed Yes | 47c | 107.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 106.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 41c | 105.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…c095backed Yes | 48c | 105.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed No | 77c | 102.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d870backed Yes | 37c | 100.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 38c | 99.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 30c | 99.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 75c | 98.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 90.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 62c | 89.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 89.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 28c | 88.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 29c | 87.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked No | 78c | 85.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 82.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 35c | 72.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 34c | 72.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 42c | 71.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 43c | 68.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…8941backed Yes | 29c | 68.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 66.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 64.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 48c | 63.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 29c | 63.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 62.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…e1ffbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 67c | 56.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 38c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 48c | 51.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 67c | 50.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 39c | 50.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 66c | 48.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 66c | 47.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.