TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,812,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,657,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,812,161 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c5e…a114backed Grizzlies11c250,290$27,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,531.953554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Grizzlies13c195,353$26,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,302.9249244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Grizzlies11c140,000$15,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,799.999018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Grizzlies26c108,230$28,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,531.3529245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Grizzlies10c99,881$10,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,270.419957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Grizzlies10c47,300$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,73013842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Grizzlies2c42,737$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.121,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Grizzlies2c40,646$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.3916919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Grizzlies28c33,075$9,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,267.971,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Grizzlies12c28,665$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,439.8232540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacdf…f80abacked Grizzlies14c25,629$3,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,588.064656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies18c21,630$3,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,944.972,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e10…0cd4backed Grizzlies12c20,944$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.282740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick26cpaid-11.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Grizzlies12c20,873$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,552.151,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers56c18,717$10,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,229.352,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers77c17,179$13,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,893.741,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Grizzlies13c15,171$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.981,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Grizzlies11c15,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.995246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Grizzlies14c14,887$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.722,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies11c14,146$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.583,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Grizzlies6c13,389$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.2236023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Grizzlies12c13,308$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.4116039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Grizzlies1c11,715$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.367211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Grizzlies9c10,647$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.2647028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Grizzlies0c10,414$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.665213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Grizzlies11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Grizzlies11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10014243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Grizzlies10c9,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.931,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Cavaliers64c8,621$5,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,078.9416959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Grizzlies9c8,039$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.478728.7%25 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Grizzlies36c7,505$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,695.2580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Grizzlies0c7,429$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.694573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Grizzlies16c7,078$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.1347436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Grizzlies10c6,558$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.8534136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers77c6,504$5,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.428,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4162…0d18backed Cavaliers61c6,422$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.116848.5%33 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Grizzlies15c6,290$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.448555.3%47 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Grizzlies15c6,186$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.0415140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Grizzlies10c5,913$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.252055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Grizzlies19c5,658$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07511335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b4c…e024backed Grizzlies3c5,539$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Grizzlies11c5,400$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.992330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked Grizzlies11c5,358$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.381838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e4…73f9backed Cavaliers67c5,105$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.0115639.1%61 W · 95 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Grizzlies2c4,939$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Grizzlies19c4,904$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.6414355.9%80 W · 63 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9087…9532backed Grizzlies2c4,835$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.128229.3%24 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Grizzlies0c4,655$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.268820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd59b…90f0backed Grizzlies11c4,640$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Grizzlies3c4,624$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.481,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3439…61e3backed Grizzlies9c4,475$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.494658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Grizzlies12c4,454$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.4630947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Cavaliers66c4,451$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.8443269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers70c4,422$3,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.655,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies14c4,325$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.373,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Grizzlies45c4,277$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.2716261.7%100 W · 62 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Grizzlies10c4,202$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.1727735%97 W · 180 L-30.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Grizzlies26c4,070$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.3124937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Grizzlies14c3,869$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.617150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Grizzlies27c3,668$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.315633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c7f…6591backed Grizzlies12c3,580$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.656328.6%18 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbedd…7605backed Grizzlies5c3,537$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6210630.2%32 W · 74 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Grizzlies11c3,430$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.6124247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Grizzlies11c3,304$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.4611547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d5…c6c9backed Cavaliers80c3,109$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.092560%15 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82ff…f0c4backed Cavaliers64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0807147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Grizzlies10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Grizzlies9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2708948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Grizzlies32c2,665$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.7825226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Cavaliers79c2,551$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.4318632.3%60 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd50f…2b9abacked Grizzlies9c2,534$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0614733.3%49 W · 98 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Grizzlies12c2,526$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.15831%18 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e98…3a8abacked Grizzlies26c2,472$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.792416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-71%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a2e…37cabacked Grizzlies9c2,452$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.981931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers54c2,446$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.965,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba4…fd40backed Grizzlies12c2,369$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.36628.8%19 W · 47 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Grizzlies19c2,349$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.2226934.9%94 W · 175 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Grizzlies12c2,348$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7259646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Grizzlies1c2,290$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7464517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf531…b062backed Grizzlies13c2,265$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.3154838%208 W · 340 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies12c2,265$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Cavaliers68c2,222$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.048429.8%25 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Grizzlies31c2,212$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.7223747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Grizzlies11c2,195$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.447142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Cavaliers70c2,100$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9912756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3be…c163backed Cavaliers69c2,098$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.655253.8%28 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b3…8ef3backed Grizzlies5c2,014$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.282010%2 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Cavaliers72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56089444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8202…0714backed Grizzlies9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Grizzlies9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9825641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Grizzlies35c1,994$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.7616065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Grizzlies12c1,973$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.817532%56 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c90…c394backed Grizzlies10c1,892$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.25724.6%14 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2790…2233backed Grizzlies10c1,892$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.219735%69 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…0f2bbacked Grizzlies10c1,892$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.26440.6%26 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Grizzlies29c1,884$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.323833.2%79 W · 159 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b89…baa4backed Grizzlies3c1,848$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7914628.1%41 W · 105 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Grizzlies28c1,709$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.435650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Grizzlies8c1,693$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.359749.5%48 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Grizzlies21c1,641$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.085813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.