NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2dda42fa38a656bdb956a4fac4768b9589a262ca57db8ea26e8c845e307867f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Over | 48c | 12,500$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 11,081$4,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,503 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7829…cfd3backed Under | 53c | 5,579$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.83 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Under | 52c | 4,856$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.12 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Under | 52c | 4,371$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.73 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 58c | 3,432$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.73 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 39c | 2,379$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 43c | 2,361$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.83 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,578$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.58 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 1,347$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 39c | 1,240$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.37 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 14c | 1,167$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Over | 48c | 1,096$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.92 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Over | 48c | 928.9$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.03 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c4…fe8bbacked Under | 52c | 902.15$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 43c | 900.11$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.34 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 600$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 536.82$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.25 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 39c | 425.75$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 57c | 325.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.58 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 39c | 251$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.11 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 20c | 216.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 41c | 184.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 41c | 163.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 40c | 127.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 50c | 101.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Under | 58c | 93.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 86.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…7e1cbacked Under | 24c | 79.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 51c | 63.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…44acbacked Over | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 59.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 54c | 58.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Under | 70c | 55.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 38c | 54.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5689…2b99backed Over | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 44c | 47.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 55c | 45.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 51c | 45.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 67c | 44.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Over | 42c | 40.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Under | 64c | 37.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 45c | 35.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…3ba4backed Over | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Over | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…6a8ebacked Over | 43c | 28.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…1532backed Over | 42c | 26.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…bad3backed Under | 61c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…4e65backed Under | 61c | 22.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 80c | 21.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…c587backed Under | 68c | 18.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…60cabacked Under | 64c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. GrizzliesCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Max Strus: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.