NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0fa78a1e07e24263ce0424740575a47067c83f9e8a5a793eb2fb7e81728f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies | 50c | 4,728$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.47 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Cavaliers | 50c | 4,511$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.69 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies | 56c | 1,805$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.15 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Grizzlies | 69c | 1,448$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.53 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,190$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.5 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6abc…bd1bbacked Cavaliers | 38c | 760.11$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.27 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 21c | 736.34$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.92 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Cavaliers | 55c | 530.73$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Grizzlies | 47c | 397.92$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Grizzlies | 46c | 273.87$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Cavaliers | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed Cavaliers | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 248 | 50%124 W · 124 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…77f3backed Cavaliers | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Grizzlies | 50c | 129.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Cavaliers | 79c | 128.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Cavaliers | 9c | 126$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Cavaliers | 11c | 95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Cavaliers | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 90.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac8…9e67backed Cavaliers | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 51c | 82.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 79.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies | 59c | 78.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Grizzlies | 45c | 72.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Cavaliers | 54c | 72.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 70.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Grizzlies | 48c | 66.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 52c | 58.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Cavaliers | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Cavaliers | 43c | 42.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Cavaliers | 69c | 38.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…df71backed Cavaliers | 54c | 33.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…07e7backed Cavaliers | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Cavaliers | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Cavaliers | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies | 51c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…3c85backed Cavaliers | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. GrizzliesCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Max Strus: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.