TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Grizzlies56c86,376$48,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,433.9536549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Cavaliers44c60,000$26,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,599.9938253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Grizzlies52c32,176$16,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,588.7436359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Grizzlies56c19,530$10,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,937.031833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers48c17,833$8,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,240.391,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Grizzlies50c8,730$4,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,36513842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers45c6,224$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,398.964,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Cavaliers50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers45c5,798$2,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.179,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Cavaliers50c5,685$2,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.57451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Cavaliers48c4,112$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.3472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers45c3,627$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.511,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Cavaliers45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Cavaliers43c2,488$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.4211243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Cavaliers47c2,413$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.8919745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Grizzlies50c2,364$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.1924247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Cavaliers45c2,272$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.71,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e3…d750backed Grizzlies51c2,100$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacdf…f80abacked Grizzlies53c2,053$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.884656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Cavaliers45c1,927$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.592356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers35c1,827$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.648,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Cavaliers44c1,750$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.9279650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Cavaliers30c1,597$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.261,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Grizzlies56c1,363$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.551,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Grizzlies56c1,363$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.5529849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies52c1,248$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.831,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Grizzlies55c1,230$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.5658953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies53c1,225$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.772,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Grizzlies1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151236.5%8 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-89.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies63c1,168$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.032,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Grizzlies53c1,163$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.6537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Grizzlies49c1,156$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5641,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Cavaliers48c1,120$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.4917850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Grizzlies66c1,071$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.61,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc884…c422backed Grizzlies56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Grizzlies47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Cavaliers47c995$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.0947436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Grizzlies55c884.55$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.571654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e7d…eaa6backed Cavaliers44c878.55$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers47c844.5$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b62…728abacked Grizzlies48c835$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.811556.5%65 W · 50 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Cavaliers46c801.49$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.812240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers45c674.39$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.713,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies52c651.05$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.184,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Cavaliers47c601.22$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.6537842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Cavaliers47c578.84$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.7917349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Grizzlies52c549.81$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.393543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Grizzlies55c545.15$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.831,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers36c511.52$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.993,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Grizzlies49c500.75$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3722948.5%111 W · 118 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers46c459.62$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.165,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Grizzlies7c450$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.540440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Grizzlies55c442.27$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2542352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Cavaliers22c418.24$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9521243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Grizzlies48c387.57$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8662948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Grizzlies52c367.36$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0313148.9%64 W · 67 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Grizzlies55c353.81$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.676250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Grizzlies56c348.9$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.741753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Grizzlies7c345.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2478639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Cavaliers45c343.82$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.17051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Grizzlies56c321.64$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1282440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Grizzlies57c306.59$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.415252.6%80 W · 72 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Grizzlies4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231238.5%120 W · 192 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Cavaliers49c296.76$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3516948.5%82 W · 87 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Grizzlies7c295$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3580440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers48c293.91$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.281,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Grizzlies57c265.75$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4819550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Grizzlies57c265.75$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4814852.7%78 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Grizzlies52c261.48$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9724849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Cavaliers52c222$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5616053.1%85 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Grizzlies54c205.88$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4881349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Cavaliers49c197.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.949852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3735…3d9dbacked Grizzlies50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710737.4%40 W · 67 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Grizzlies52c187.17$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5638947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Grizzlies7c187$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0945544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Grizzlies55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.348957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Grizzlies55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.351647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Grizzlies56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3661151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Grizzlies56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3635052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Grizzlies56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.364860.4%29 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Cavaliers45c160.94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8420240.1%81 W · 121 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3373…50c4backed Cavaliers45c146.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.841546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Grizzlies53c145.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2642853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Cavaliers48c142.03$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5417250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97b…27e5backed Grizzlies52c139.46$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-54.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Cavaliers46c131.19$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.271,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Grizzlies56c129.91$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7556447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Cavaliers32c127.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.111,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…be97backed Grizzlies54c123.47$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.821643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Cavaliers51c122.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3334953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Cavaliers46c121.89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8266046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Grizzlies54c114.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.091,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Grizzlies50c113.36$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6892058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Grizzlies52c112.06$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2719548.7%95 W · 100 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Grizzlies55c108.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.371,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5aa…0058backed Cavaliers47c103$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.596443.8%28 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Grizzlies52c98.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4735546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…a40bbacked Cavaliers49c98.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4414555.2%80 W · 65 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed Grizzlies50c97.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.788646.5%40 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.