TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,199 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc33d…0d40backed Cavaliers62c669.74$418 inWon+$251.9820353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Grizzlies58c643.89$376 inLost-$375.7114745.6%67 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Grizzlies37c382.27$141 inLost-$141.446046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers63c299.43$188 inWon+$111.2876653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers39c269.88$105 inWon+$165.075,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7861…3d27backed Cavaliers33c113.43$37 inWon+$767930.4%24 W · 55 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6794…0a8bbacked Grizzlies23c109.72$26 inLost-$25.764221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Grizzlies23c99.54$23 inLost-$22.8942744.5%190 W · 237 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Grizzlies37c96.22$36 inLost-$35.61,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Grizzlies24c95.44$23 inLost-$22.913046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers77c75.35$58 inWon+$17.332,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9309…c705backed Cavaliers14c74.9$10 inWon+$64.411513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Grizzlies67c41.51$28 inLost-$27.8132654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Cavaliers41c37.66$16 inWon+$22.0613744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Cavaliers51c28.55$15 inWon+$13.9934849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers76c25.47$19 inWon+$6.112,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Cavaliers77c20$15 inWon+$4.610148.5%49 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grizzlies73c17.57$13 inLost-$12.911,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers79c14.07$11 inWon+$2.951,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.