NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bcbcbdbd512b77342c5f36ffc543264738ff856e8d64aba3db7bc150ed216db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 4,421$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Over | 47c | 2,884$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.53 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Under | 56c | 2,617$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.15 | 242 | 47.1%114 W · 128 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 2,107$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.69 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 1,794$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.3 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.97 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 57c | 1,148$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 46c | 1,134$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.37 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 734.77$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 40c | 628.49$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.09 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Over | 52c | 466.92$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 192 | 58.3%112 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 44c | 443.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.18 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 67c | 429.09$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Over | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 8c | 242.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 107 | 18.7%20 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 10c | 236.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…fdb4backed Over | 50c | 232.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 44c | 208.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 46c | 187.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Over | 47c | 123.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Over | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 106.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…498cbacked Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 94.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Under | 44c | 74.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 44c | 62.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…2b59backed Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 45c | 57.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 54c | 42.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 42c | 38.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 44c | 34.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 41c | 26.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 20.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Under | 59c | 20.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. GrizzliesCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Max Strus: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.