F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f02f8d8e289a668efa8e20dc20662f2aefe6dcf854a735716d7ea8b5c6faf55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,372 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 12c | 7,500$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.4 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 5c | 5,192$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.92 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,597$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,151$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 3c | 2,572$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…3d36backed Yes | 2c | 2,513$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa436…3c2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,934$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…2808backed Yes | 2c | 1,897$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…cd86backed Yes | 2c | 1,560$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,379$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…1fc0backed Yes | 10c | 1,251$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,189$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,031$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 11c | 936.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Yes | 2c | 907.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc940…4d39backed Yes | 12c | 845.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 6c | 825.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 783.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 7c | 734.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 3c | 700.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 617.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…c853backed Yes | 2c | 593.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 4c | 584.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 566.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 541.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 12c | 538.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 6c | 504.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…e775backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…3b95backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e58…b3f1backed Yes | 4c | 436.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…2cfabacked Yes | 3c | 416.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 5c | 407.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Yes | 10c | 399.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 8c | 368.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…d9e4backed Yes | 9c | 358.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 12c | 330.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…1d68backed Yes | 3c | 330.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked Yes | 4c | 307.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…f39dbacked Yes | 5c | 292.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked Yes | 15c | 290.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 8c | 290.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…0b30backed Yes | 5c | 276.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 271.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 7c | 268.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…27c8backed Yes | 12c | 252.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 8c | 233.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…fd78backed Yes | 7c | 212.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 18c | 195.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 12c | 192.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945f…8125backed Yes | 7c | 178.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfc…e887backed Yes | 15c | 167.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 10c | 155.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed Yes | 17c | 148.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 8c | 132.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…c98ebacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 19c | 56.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e1…e27fbacked Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.