F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cefb4f2b6951334c3061b8c195fe0f282d37823a406d397e484e309c90e7d26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,856 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Yes | 10c | 5,017$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,965$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,580$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…ed6fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,316$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 3c | 3,025$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,888$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…9917backed Yes | 4c | 2,691$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 2,395$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,938$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 1,342$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 4c | 999.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 996.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8477…3580backed Yes | 2c | 979.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 2c | 907.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 4c | 842$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…8012backed Yes | 6c | 779.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…3b95backed Yes | 8c | 621.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 550.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 460.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…bd53backed Yes | 7c | 445.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0571…272dbacked Yes | 5c | 443.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 7c | 394.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 5c | 371.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 4c | 254.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 228.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…6babbacked Yes | 6c | 210.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…1365backed Yes | 10c | 208.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 6c | 186.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…cbefbacked Yes | 6c | 156.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.