TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,006 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c24,642$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.345071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f0…c5c3backed Yes1c13,515$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.27110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes24c8,204$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000160%0 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c7,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes5c7,314$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.041488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes6c5,630$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3113321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes16c5,562$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9172231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a66…a177backed Yes0c4,847$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick1cpaid+921.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes9c4,773$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4122725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc649…2425backed Yes10c4,054$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002025%5 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a7…5980backed Yes2c4,052$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5581…c029backed Yes1c3,883$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.362142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes9c3,683$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.634418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcff9…795abacked Yes0c3,595$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.191833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No80c3,580$2,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.8836750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes10c3,532$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.066026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c3,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3943212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d91…7a49backed Yes1c3,333$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes8c3,191$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5749023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5b…7796backed Yes21c3,186$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6802520%5 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c3,125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8a…4a4abacked Yes1c3,071$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7adc…1457backed Yes9c2,882$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c2,827$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.394928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3a…735fbacked Yes16c2,790$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+170.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c2,501$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.047135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes14c2,468$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.242630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c2,447$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.33721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes2c2,156$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504017.5%7 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes13c2,100$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2732944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c2,058$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e6…8984backed Yes18c2,019$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.37812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0006…2cafbacked Yes16c2,000$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f16…b18ebacked Yes12c2,000$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.682133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c1,925$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29089617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes5c1,860$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0f…e8dfbacked Yes20c1,853$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.481540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No70c1,793$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.0322547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8896…6481backed Yes6c1,745$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec5…65a8backed Yes17c1,650$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f31…7f8ebacked Yes15c1,614$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.623842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No64c1,435$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf96…3263backed Yes19c1,431$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.021631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes13c1,428$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.144337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f3…d930backed Yes19c1,328$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+135.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…d49bbacked Yes8c1,263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes14c1,244$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43bf…c53abacked Yes8c1,243$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006726.9%18 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc026…8e5cbacked Yes12c1,203$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8860%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e67…996ebacked Yes20c1,202$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes4c1,200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.422227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c7a…cd40backed Yes19c1,150$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.78156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-55.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No74c1,133$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.5829254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes18c1,110$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.687938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c1,099$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6211818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf398…9e0ebacked Yes6c1,095$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d4…a8efbacked Yes19c1,059$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbb…4accbacked Yes11c1,049$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x093e…979bbacked Yes12c1,013$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes5c1,012$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.61151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes14c1,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes19c1,000$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1852718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13018338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3994…ff63backed Yes18c908.82$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654214.3%6 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+74.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes21c899.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19038237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed No80c893.8$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.53243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes7c889.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+120%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6331…7a9cbacked Yes15c861.67$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x586e…c8c3backed Yes1c786.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104936.7%18 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No79c785.01$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.794934.7%17 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f99…85c8backed Yes13c741.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b1f…a5abbacked Yes11c734$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes12c733.53$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.245913.6%8 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes15c722.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes8c709.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.057027.1%19 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No79c656.04$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.715749.1%28 W · 29 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes20c645.22$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0440939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No78c642.25$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.35238.5%20 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd83a…6112backed Yes10c631.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3190…6604backed Yes8c623.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.882934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5f…7014backed Yes6c623.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0872…95e6backed Yes8c615.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…234abacked Yes2c605.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes15c601.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.877243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes5c599.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307317.8%13 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b3…b445backed Yes6c596.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x553c…1745backed Yes5c577.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-55.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a4a…48f3backed Yes18c568.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c3e…403abacked Yes19c533.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1681…faacbacked Yes19c530$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e6…b525backed Yes16c514.89$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+45.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes19c500$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+130.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb2b…6956backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10045843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed Yes20c494.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008829.5%26 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cef…759ebacked Yes4c490.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63220%0 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…7be5backed Yes19c483.65$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.571926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c88…9f1bbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.