Middle East · resolved market
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed085ecb6312031ed20f709b2632d85eed88eed7ef913b796c24865f30aec560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $345,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,006 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 24,642$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed Yes | 1c | 13,515$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 24c | 8,204$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 5c | 7,314$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.04 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 6c | 5,630$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.31 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 16c | 5,562$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed Yes | 0c | 4,847$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 1cpaid | +921.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 9c | 4,773$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed Yes | 10c | 4,054$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…5980backed Yes | 2c | 4,052$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 1c | 3,883$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 9c | 3,683$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.63 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…795abacked Yes | 0c | 3,595$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 80c | 3,580$2,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.88 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 10c | 3,532$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.06 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…7a49backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 3,191$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.57 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 21c | 3,186$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…4a4abacked Yes | 1c | 3,071$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…1457backed Yes | 9c | 2,882$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,827$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…735fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,790$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,501$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,468$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 2,447$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes | 13c | 2,100$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,058$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…8984backed Yes | 18c | 2,019$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…2cafbacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b18ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,925$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 5c | 1,860$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…e8dfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,853$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 70c | 1,793$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.03 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…6481backed Yes | 6c | 1,745$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…65a8backed Yes | 17c | 1,650$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…7f8ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,614$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 64c | 1,435$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.3 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf96…3263backed Yes | 19c | 1,431$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 13c | 1,428$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…d930backed Yes | 19c | 1,328$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…d49bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 14c | 1,244$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 8c | 1,243$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc026…8e5cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,203$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…996ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,202$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…cd40backed Yes | 19c | 1,150$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.78 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 74c | 1,133$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.58 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,099$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…9e0ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,095$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d4…a8efbacked Yes | 19c | 1,059$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…4accbacked Yes | 11c | 1,049$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093e…979bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,013$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 5c | 1,012$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 18c | 908.82$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 21c | 899.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 80c | 893.8$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes | 7c | 889.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +120%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6331…7a9cbacked Yes | 15c | 861.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…c8c3backed Yes | 1c | 786.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 79c | 785.01$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…85c8backed Yes | 13c | 741.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…a5abbacked Yes | 11c | 734$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes | 12c | 733.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 15c | 722.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 8c | 709.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 79c | 656.04$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 20c | 645.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 78c | 642.25$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…6112backed Yes | 10c | 631.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…6604backed Yes | 8c | 623.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 6c | 623.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0872…95e6backed Yes | 8c | 615.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…234abacked Yes | 2c | 605.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 15c | 601.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…b445backed Yes | 6c | 596.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553c…1745backed Yes | 5c | 577.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…48f3backed Yes | 18c | 568.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…403abacked Yes | 19c | 533.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…faacbacked Yes | 19c | 530$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…b525backed Yes | 16c | 514.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 19c | 500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6956backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 20c | 494.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…759ebacked Yes | 4c | 490.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…7be5backed Yes | 19c | 483.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?this page
- Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?No won
- Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.