TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$817,671

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817,671 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 808 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes24c26,070$6,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,254.3342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked No67c20,034$13,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,706.76336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda73…8e23backed No79c19,143$15,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,949.971533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes26c15,999$4,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,190.26026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No66c15,982$10,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,360.3222547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No70c15,331$10,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,624.3812362.6%77 W · 46 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5b…7796backed Yes30c15,254$4,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,516.52520%5 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes4c15,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60043212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes22c14,646$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.264418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No71c11,342$8,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,294.911357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecef…558abacked No67c10,874$7,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,603.013100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes15c9,838$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.0449023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes5c9,709$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.0317737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c9,035$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,592.3689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c8,781$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4975…e61dbacked Yes23c8,478$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No70c8,407$5,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.174540%18 W · 27 L-10.5wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-38.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes8c8,323$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.96434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae2…1032backed Yes36c8,152$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.752334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes32c7,861$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.36633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No79c7,653$6,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.5910558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes18c7,360$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.0113321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes29c6,447$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.964337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed No63c6,301$3,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.657150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4135…e462backed Yes26c6,139$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.825726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No58c5,840$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.9838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes30c5,600$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.428725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa263…5dbabacked Yes28c5,123$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed No53c5,031$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.974060%24 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No73c5,017$3,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.931346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No69c4,970$3,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.295865.5%38 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f3…d930backed Yes36c4,949$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8003330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+135.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes9c4,711$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.531488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c4,400$3,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.9864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c3,951$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.737135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…610cbacked Yes36c3,935$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4311513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes21c3,800$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.997317.8%13 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed No70c3,787$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.719068.9%62 W · 28 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes36c3,707$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.831338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5059…720cbacked No70c3,506$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.926068.3%41 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes33c3,506$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.537123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…df85backed Yes34c3,310$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.031643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked Yes28c3,223$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.454035%14 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb1…3c7abacked Yes42c3,222$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.831816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8933…a8e1backed No71c3,210$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…29c6backed No66c3,167$2,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.464355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No62c3,153$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.1515953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes17c3,068$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.5620617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed Yes20c2,882$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.078033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x465f…9f4dbacked Yes23c2,879$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6701330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes32c2,867$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.571553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+74.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes24c2,844$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.067027.1%19 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,831$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.721,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No70c2,817$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.7136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No63c2,785$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.9936227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c2,749$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.4367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7264…8583backed Yes13c2,705$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.91723.5%4 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick11cpaid+115%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes16c2,687$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.073917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No58c2,668$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.825541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c27…d050backed Yes34c2,652$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9003033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No77c2,645$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.4235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe9bf…fdedbacked Yes34c2,628$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes38c2,616$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994160%0 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No61c2,605$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.3917755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No71c2,604$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.3616061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafa8…05f1backed Yes35c2,513$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No79c2,484$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.5612441.1%51 W · 73 L-14.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb85d…4ac4backed No76c2,424$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.893161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x055b…5c5fbacked Yes37c2,412$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes21c2,407$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec2…532abacked Yes13c2,400$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.613844.7%17 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc0f…e8dfbacked Yes63c2,391$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b9…09aabacked Yes24c2,377$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe131…7594backed No76c2,374$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes26c2,251$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.247012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2c0…a68dbacked No79c2,224$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.592653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x830a…7751backed Yes40c2,152$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.651030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c3…68d9backed Yes7c2,125$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9561…5497backed Yes28c2,083$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.23100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes25c2,070$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5222725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No74c2,051$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.1516648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes25c2,038$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34bb…3f87backed Yes35c2,014$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked No71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5802250%11 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No67c1,995$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.2638247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No68c1,966$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.910945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,936$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.535071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25b7…cc0ebacked Yes3c1,906$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed No76c1,900$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.6117347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes32c1,877$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.717243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x18ed…d299backed Yes18c1,875$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3393119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-64.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76d9…e3c1backed Yes27c1,875$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b8…d845backed Yes23c1,853$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.881225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c1,787$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.3920749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8896…6481backed Yes57c1,766$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbc3…b89ebacked Yes34c1,765$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91d…7be5backed Yes36c1,749$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.491926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b4…85b5backed Yes43c1,723$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.892917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb48b…04ebbacked No63c1,700$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.998357.8%48 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ca…60aebacked No73c1,680$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.664555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.