TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2of G2, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,027,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,121,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,027,268 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 524 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a5c…a375backed BetBoom Team37c393,804$146,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,331.955238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed G262c173,325$107,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,282.7223355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed G264c125,647$80,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,232.9322049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed G253c58,036$30,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,325.57363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked G266c45,086$29,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,476.4914954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed BetBoom Team32c43,065$13,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,576.2814441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed BetBoom Team47c41,200$19,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,36423839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed G254c33,016$17,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,112.158750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08db…296fbacked BetBoom Team0c30,082$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.081968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed G264c22,000$14,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,85025842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed G266c20,831$13,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,09172453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked G268c14,440$9,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,632.1820458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed BetBoom Team32c12,365$3,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.964235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked BetBoom Team46c12,138$5,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,583.2539249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed G266c9,258$6,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,11522849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed BetBoom Team46c8,490$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.424731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed BetBoom Team40c8,013$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.130340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed BetBoom Team47c7,326$3,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,466.9257358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed G262c7,227$4,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.9412450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed BetBoom Team32c6,770$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.7813044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked BetBoom Team36c6,682$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.12,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked BetBoom Team36c6,656$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.0832348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked G264c6,594$4,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.2617357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…76babacked BetBoom Team41c6,319$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed G260c5,930$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.711,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked G263c5,716$3,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.047,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed BetBoom Team24c5,189$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.8819949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked BetBoom Team42c5,026$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.8522354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed G254c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30036645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed BetBoom Team33c4,879$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.219645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed G258c4,634$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.2231345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed G262c4,502$2,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.654,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked G278c4,288$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.895267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a1c…6165backed BetBoom Team47c4,275$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60c3…5947backed BetBoom Team48c4,273$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.551330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked G267c4,245$2,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.665,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x284d…59f7backed BetBoom Team33c4,121$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.181145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BetBoom Team36c4,097$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.0497040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team25c3,581$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.191,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3a…7067backed G255c3,538$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.18875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked BetBoom Team32c3,490$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.675354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked G254c3,466$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.9511249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed G269c3,460$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.91580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed G267c3,440$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.9646843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked G265c3,396$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.081,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e5…08d4backed BetBoom Team2c3,347$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.581154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked G253c3,283$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.4647147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team28c3,111$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.931,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked BetBoom Team25c3,054$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.644957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed G254c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3807537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed BetBoom Team32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9603855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38f…0f83backed BetBoom Team33c2,989$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked G269c2,979$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.035750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed BetBoom Team27c2,926$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.8336742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed G255c2,919$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.5551252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…ff77backed BetBoom Team35c2,883$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.05650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed BetBoom Team34c2,881$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team19c2,750$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.595,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked G261c2,740$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.873,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc82…3ce9backed G274c2,665$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked BetBoom Team18c2,641$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.427740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed BetBoom Team47c2,614$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.656243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked G256c2,613$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.8935940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BetBoom Team25c2,611$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.1587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8c…9a80backed G280c2,607$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team33c2,586$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.56,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed G269c2,454$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.3926549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked G254c2,400$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09916240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5e…58efbacked BetBoom Team34c2,345$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.533534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked BetBoom Team13c2,187$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.348232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed BetBoom Team45c2,166$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.2741850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked G245c2,144$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.6819540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked BetBoom Team33c2,099$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.721,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df4…0bd9backed G247c2,057$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.941450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked BetBoom Team32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.989047.8%43 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked BetBoom Team34c1,927$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.1764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed BetBoom Team42c1,826$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.8941260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed BetBoom Team33c1,769$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.616144.3%27 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked BetBoom Team37c1,725$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.0421536.3%78 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked BetBoom Team39c1,698$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.7461228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed BetBoom Team23c1,675$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.1427744.4%123 W · 154 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed BetBoom Team32c1,635$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.0239239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed G280c1,585$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.625848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed G259c1,543$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.852458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1234…c1bbbacked BetBoom Team34c1,531$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.824721.3%10 W · 37 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-44.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked G267c1,516$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G266c1,516$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.863,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked G252c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7209148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed G267c1,459$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.915158.8%30 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed G254c1,429$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.8221941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed BetBoom Team38c1,413$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.4459343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BetBoom Team43c1,363$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.732,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed G257c1,319$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.86246.8%29 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab3…6adfbacked G255c1,315$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.164151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed G255c1,300$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57932042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed G271c1,290$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.139248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team16c1,288$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.742,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed BetBoom Team33c1,281$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.815141.7%63 W · 88 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked BetBoom Team20c1,253$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4614839.2%58 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed BetBoom Team37c1,210$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.54233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.