TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$660,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$636,029

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $660,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes40c16,301$6,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,841.2611512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No27c14,374$3,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,940.6929331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes40c13,730$5,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,191.2356429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes15c11,212$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,562.521,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b4…3cf1backed No3c10,400$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704932.7%16 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes52c9,945$5,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,774.1554122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes19c9,883$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,959.5663414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes21c8,508$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,692.411,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes42c6,619$2,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,852.7828526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No1c5,668$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4812424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes18c5,417$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,421.3319927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No75c5,241$3,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,945.1614219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes2c5,061$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,962.596097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No61c4,818$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.2746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes39c4,640$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,809.9157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4586…158cbacked No9c4,154$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.883473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes27c3,994$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.8114025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes20c3,688$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.9453817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes43c3,511$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.822740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes8c3,380$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.3517126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes41c3,262$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.2113817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked No66c3,151$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.745930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes44c3,038$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.967126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes8c3,027$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.7317917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes6c3,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.9722610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes56c2,934$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.1131722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e87…4f64backed Yes43c2,918$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.142347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes69c2,793$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…6178backed Yes40c2,757$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.773740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes26c2,726$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.5123819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes30c2,652$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.367432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No54c2,638$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.320735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed No57c2,559$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.088630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No51c2,451$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.7615844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c2,425$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.6822926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes41c2,391$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.4624815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes33c2,307$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.666825%17 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes16c2,293$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.621822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes55c2,263$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.815240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes5c2,131$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.12338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes31c2,035$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.5711428.9%33 W · 81 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x960b…9303backed Yes32c1,990$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.256021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes43c1,986$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.3499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9429…c151backed No75c1,944$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.661656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes28c1,935$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.163821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc447…54f5backed No80c1,870$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4288…00e8backed Yes47c1,852$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.294141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1dc…581abacked Yes55c1,830$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+4,990.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes3c1,801$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.751,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes41c1,761$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.3432613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No59c1,761$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.551560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,661$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.931,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No65c1,656$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.836167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes36c1,634$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.5321614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes45c1,600$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.3617628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes17c1,562$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.6719930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c1,500$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48838811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd293…a4e3backed No64c1,493$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.11020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked Yes39c1,484$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.935056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No77c1,467$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.359233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes21c1,438$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.5584616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes15c1,427$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.7578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes7c1,366$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.4837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes41c1,336$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.4218726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes8c1,319$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.8312114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c4…6cb3backed No60c1,295$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf87d…e2c9backed No72c1,286$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes16c1,246$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.314829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No62c1,237$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.016634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes4c1,174$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.195628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No80c1,119$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.57439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,110$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.81824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bf…06bdbacked Yes20c1,087$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.47850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes42c1,086$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.514137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…c878backed Yes9c1,076$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.156719.4%13 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x409c…9ac8backed Yes3c1,042$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.312124%29 W · 92 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No56c1,042$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.3934833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes19c1,039$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.9488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes46c1,030$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.0515136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes40c1,005$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.1628025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…f169backed Yes69c1,000$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.574348.8%21 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97012416.9%21 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes3c980$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.832116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes5c926.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.0127417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes13c913.08$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.0712828.1%36 W · 92 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked No57c899.97$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.785326.4%14 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No71c896.1$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.3813844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes15c871.22$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.814818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed No25c871.03$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.810543.8%46 W · 59 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b7…227bbacked Yes21c863.27$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6792147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes62c853.25$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.4918419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes19c837.45$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.789627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed No73c808.36$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.2834427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21a4…6f4dbacked Yes53c800$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.21957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes24c779.61$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.9388018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes15c749.69$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.786322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes2c720.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.35688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c702.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.171,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes18c699.67$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.125012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes62c692.65$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.0910432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.