Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3e7ba8172cfce77cf03496e4f1f07b85420e18d350ab1ddf1a4b50af05823b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 1c | 10,059$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 10c | 7,543$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.08 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 55c | 7,318$4,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,296.02 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,490$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.07 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c45…425cbacked Yes | 53c | 6,196$3,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 51c | 5,488$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.65 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes | 10c | 5,003$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.51 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…2e34backed Yes | 47c | 4,668$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.22 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 18c | 3,800$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.2 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 45c | 3,783$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075.58 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 43c | 3,732$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.77 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 62c | 3,542$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.24 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 70c | 3,218$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 3,130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 20c | 2,495$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.58 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,350$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Yes | 51c | 2,227$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 2,139$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.54 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed No | 44c | 2,132$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.84 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 48c | 2,018$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.45 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.58 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 23c | 1,933$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.24 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 55c | 1,926$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 6c | 1,735$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4f64backed No | 73c | 1,657$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…7571backed No | 71c | 1,638$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,597$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.48 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 1c | 1,537$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 42c | 1,500$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 1,480$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.84 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 27c | 1,473$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.61 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 65c | 1,399$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.52 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,272$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.39 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked No | 73c | 1,255$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.89 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 68c | 1,111$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.82 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 40c | 1,111$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.37 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 74c | 1,028$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.66 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 57c | 1,015$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.35 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed No | 61c | 1,000$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…227bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…b49cbacked Yes | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 34c | 999.98$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 54c | 976.33$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.32 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 951.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 6c | 945.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 52c | 865.29$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.19 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 27c | 864.3$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 17c | 856.07$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked Yes | 56c | 828$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.05 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 5c | 810.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes | 35c | 774.91$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.01 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 3c | 749.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 49c | 724.55$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.71 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 10c | 715.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 64c | 697.14$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.94 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 40c | 692.24$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 67c | 637.23$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 52c | 619.16$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.16 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes | 8c | 617.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 4c | 609.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 32c | 603.7$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked No | 32c | 599.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.17 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 36c | 594.73$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…203ebacked Yes | 54c | 590$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 10c | 584.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…3cb6backed Yes | 50c | 580.81$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 27c | 534.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.38 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Yes | 54c | 532.72$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.67 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…3248backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…0f65backed Yes | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…5c79backed Yes | 55c | 495.8$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 43c | 492.62$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 78c | 484.73$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 46c | 483.18$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.67 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 50c | 476.24$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.93 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 3c | 471.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 60c | 469.27$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 5c | 467.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 54c | 461.96$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.76 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 38c | 460.11$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 3c | 454.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 422.66$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.95 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 6c | 414.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 49c | 399.52$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.76 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…ce0cbacked No | 45c | 382.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 21c | 375.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 373.09$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.69 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 19c | 372.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 3c | 366.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 365.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 24c | 357.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 338.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 49c | 323.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.79 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 60c | 319.65$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.