TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd68…0261backed Yes1c10,059$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5819930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes10c7,543$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.0863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No55c7,318$4,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,296.0256429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes5c6,490$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0728016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c45…425cbacked Yes53c6,196$3,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,302.931625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No51c5,488$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.6511512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes10c5,003$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.514351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10054122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed Yes47c4,668$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.224129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes18c3,800$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.216427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No45c3,783$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.5820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No43c3,732$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.7746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No62c3,542$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.2417631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…6178backed No70c3,218$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.383740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c3,130$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.141,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.9918123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes20c2,495$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.588337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes2c2,350$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2317917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Yes51c2,227$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.752123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes21c2,139$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.5457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed No44c2,132$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.844233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes48c2,018$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.457126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes7c2,000$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13114829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.5814025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes23c1,933$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.2488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No55c1,926$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.41560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes6c1,735$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.716023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e87…4f64backed No73c1,657$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.522347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5725…7571backed No71c1,638$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes42c1,597$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.4857222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes1c1,537$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73150%0 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes42c1,500$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6287028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes18c1,480$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.841,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes27c1,473$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No65c1,399$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.5238828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes47c1,272$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.3923819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked No73c1,255$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.892373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes68c1,111$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.8211529.6%34 W · 81 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee0…5447backed Yes40c1,111$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.375139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No74c1,028$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.6615649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes57c1,015$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.3510829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ee…c635backed No61c1,000$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.52638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b7…227bbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9829…b49cbacked Yes40c999.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacb9…0754backed Yes34c999.98$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.999636.5%35 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked No54c976.33$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.325056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes5c951.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.019533.7%32 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes6c945.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.61,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed No52c865.29$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.1910432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes27c864.3$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8129227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes17c856.07$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7534215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked Yes56c828$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.057448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes5c810.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes35c774.91$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.015418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes3c749.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.182116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes49c724.55$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.7114137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes10c715.94$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.529627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No64c697.14$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.9413844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes40c692.24$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No67c637.23$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.715844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No52c619.16$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.1663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes8c617.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.365240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes4c609.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1916817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes32c603.7$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0278111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3303933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9476…28bcbacked No32c599.99$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.1711838.1%45 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes36c594.73$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.416322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe83…203ebacked Yes54c590$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes10c584.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6514153.9%76 W · 65 L+13.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2c2…3cb6backed Yes50c580.81$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.661421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes27c534.73$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3884616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Yes54c532.72$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.673215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a0…3248backed Yes55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b22…0f65backed Yes55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb036…5c79backed Yes55c495.8$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.692245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes43c492.62$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.567022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No78c484.73$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes46c483.18$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.678528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes50c476.24$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9320129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes3c471.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.285115.7%8 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No60c469.27$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.096524.6%16 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes5c467.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9712332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes54c461.96$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7646521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes38c460.11$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.935612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes3c454.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6332613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c422.66$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.9551845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes6c414.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.542611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019020.5%39 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes49c399.52$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7611729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4938…ce0cbacked No45c382.6$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes21c375.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5311424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No48c373.09$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.692,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes19c372.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8934425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes3c366.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3625012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c365.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.228723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes24c357.94$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5328526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c338.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4712114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked No49c323.01$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.791,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…7016backed No60c319.65$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.641656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.