Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff88be85625ada22a767f916dea0f3267792d141ab63d7186c02816b2d5e587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $320,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 20c | 13,613$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.06 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 25c | 8,353$2,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,085.07 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 4c | 6,096$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.3 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 72c | 4,605$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.86 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 67c | 4,180$2,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.56 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 13c | 3,640$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.48 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,436$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.05 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 13c | 3,429$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.42 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,316$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.4 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 16c | 3,015$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.99 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 3,005$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 25c | 2,808$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.8 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 53c | 2,780$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.34 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 26c | 2,700$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.68 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 17c | 2,625$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.37 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,618$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.63 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 24c | 2,431$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.09 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 75c | 2,380$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.64 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes | 14c | 2,360$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.73 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 29c | 2,356$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.8 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 29c | 2,257$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.81 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 33c | 2,208$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.51 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…7d37backed Yes | 30c | 2,192$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,069$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.13 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 13c | 2,068$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.64 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 50c | 1,986$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.44 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 46c | 1,975$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.01 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked No | 74c | 1,570$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.62 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 53c | 1,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…527dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,445$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 42c | 1,392$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.61 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,352$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes | 43c | 1,341$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.94 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4f64backed No | 68c | 1,316$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 15c | 1,281$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.39 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,268$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,201$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,135$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 8c | 1,043$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 54c | 994.64$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.35 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 32c | 983.5$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.28 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 22c | 963.28$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.73 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 21c | 863.39$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 2c | 825.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…a191backed No | 71c | 799.98$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.19 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed No | 62c | 758.88$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 755.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 19c | 728.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 55c | 711.79$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.13 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 52c | 709.38$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 32c | 699.93$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.98 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 52c | 696$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.92 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 8c | 695.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 16c | 682.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 681.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 58c | 678.48$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.84 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 14c | 652.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 17c | 628.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 51c | 621.21$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.2 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 15c | 610$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 48c | 598.22$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.26 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 47c | 597.33$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.02 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…b49cbacked Yes | 54c | 583.45$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 19c | 570.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 565.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 52c | 538.71$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 53c | 537.93$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.95 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 66c | 535.69$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.13 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Yes | 53c | 532.17$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 13c | 516.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 55c | 489.01$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.96 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 13c | 487.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 80c | 485.18$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…77e1backed No | 63c | 481.5$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 18c | 469.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 130 | 31.5%41 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…748fbacked Yes | 14c | 464.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 6c | 464.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 25c | 459.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes | 11c | 446.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 30c | 428.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 427.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf047…4ed6backed Yes | 21c | 418.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 13c | 418.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 23c | 393.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…227bbacked Yes | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 12c | 376.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 14c | 362.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…caf7backed Yes | 7c | 354.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 54c | 353.33$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…4235backed Yes | 55c | 352.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 17c | 344.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 14c | 336.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.