Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7049e2fd4be59560241b1d9a3c7204fa16c54bbb76498f3d6230076f4f97b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,421$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 6c | 9,377$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.33 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,252$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 6,170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 3c | 3,463$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 69c | 3,373$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.73 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,051$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.9 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 35c | 3,046$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.78 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,043$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.3 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 29c | 2,903$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.77 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 29c | 2,767$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.09 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 28c | 2,471$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.11 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 30c | 2,393$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.08 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 28c | 2,132$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.12 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,098$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed Yes | 36c | 2,063$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.17 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 34c | 2,029$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.88 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,026$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.23 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 38c | 1,968$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.37 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,961$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.64 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 19c | 1,896$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.08 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 66c | 1,881$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.92 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 3c | 1,832$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 61c | 1,782$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.08 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked No | 66c | 1,755$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.24 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 68c | 1,737$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.15 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 78c | 1,730$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.23 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked No | 77c | 1,712$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.03 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed No | 71c | 1,697$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.36 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,690$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 23c | 1,652$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.35 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…77e1backed No | 66c | 1,629$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.68 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,574$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.24 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,551$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.66 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,441$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.46 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 1,418$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.26 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes | 26c | 1,354$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.93 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4f64backed No | 73c | 1,332$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,302$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…7571backed No | 75c | 1,296$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…9fd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,293$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…6f5dbacked No | 70c | 1,271$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 27c | 1,267$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.95 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…b49cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,217$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 29c | 1,203$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.8 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 22c | 1,200$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 1,159$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.53 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 1,124$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.37 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,080$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 10c | 1,041$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed No | 72c | 1,024$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.63 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.04 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 72c | 983.48$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 33c | 847.68$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.84 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 73c | 794.73$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 28c | 770.52$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 68c | 755.65$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.57 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 6c | 749.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…f520backed Yes | 27c | 691.53$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked No | 70c | 689.49$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 36c | 647.94$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 33c | 619.06$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.66 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes | 6c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…063ebacked No | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Yes | 13c | 535.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…8354backed Yes | 36c | 520$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…ff5bbacked No | 70c | 515.29$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…2be8backed Yes | 40c | 514.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 26c | 498.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…8178backed No | 66c | 483.49$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…6f6fbacked Yes | 29c | 449.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 31c | 438.28$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.01 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…f567backed Yes | 2c | 431.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes | 18c | 400.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…60cbbacked No | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…07d3backed No | 66c | 399.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…3816backed No | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed No | 73c | 399.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…78f0backed Yes | 17c | 373.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes | 25c | 370$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…06bfbacked No | 66c | 350$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…5c79backed Yes | 35c | 336.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…3a90backed Yes | 28c | 325.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 304.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 27c | 303.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed No | 69c | 297$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 40c | 282$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 105 | 30.5%32 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 34c | 252.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 15c | 245.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x839b…81fcbacked Yes | 27c | 237.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf28…a8cfbacked No | 61c | 232.71$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 32c | 228.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.