TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes0c17,421$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2723819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes6c9,377$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.3316023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes3c7,252$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes0c6,170$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5184616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb087…6658backed Yes3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes3c3,463$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5717728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No69c3,373$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.7317631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes28c3,051$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes35c3,046$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.7856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes28c3,043$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.363821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes29c2,903$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.7788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes29c2,767$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.0957621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes28c2,471$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.1188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes30c2,393$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.0811729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes28c2,132$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.1229227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c2,098$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.491,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed Yes36c2,063$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.174233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes34c2,029$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.8821614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes34c2,026$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.2328526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.513713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes38c1,968$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.3741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes24c1,961$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.6457222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes19c1,896$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.0848819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No66c1,881$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.9262539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes3c1,832$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.175115.7%8 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed No61c1,782$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.086254.8%34 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked No66c1,755$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.245930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked No68c1,737$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.151,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No78c1,730$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.236167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked No77c1,712$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.032373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed No71c1,697$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.362725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes6c1,690$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes23c1,652$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed No66c1,629$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.688630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes33c1,574$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.2418726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes20c1,551$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.668528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes39c1,441$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.4614332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes32c1,418$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.2653522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes8c1,400$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.581,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes26c1,354$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.935418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e87…4f64backed No73c1,332$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.862347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes2c1,302$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.62116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5725…7571backed No75c1,296$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e18…9fd6backed Yes1c1,293$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.081020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df4…6f5dbacked No70c1,271$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.29850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes27c1,267$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.9534425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9829…b49cbacked Yes29c1,217$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.73520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes29c1,203$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.819124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes22c1,200$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c1,159$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5351845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c1,124$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.372,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked Yes26c1,080$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.755056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes10c1,041$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3346137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed No72c1,024$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.6315136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes33c1,000$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.0414025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506825%17 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes6c1,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0534215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No72c983.48$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.241560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes33c847.68$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.847126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c799.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No73c794.73$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6334833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes28c770.52$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.413517.8%24 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No68c755.65$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5713844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes6c749.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5510820.4%22 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…f520backed Yes27c691.53$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.361513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked No70c689.49$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.33933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes36c647.94$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.110829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes33c619.06$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.665612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes6c600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3314129.1%41 W · 100 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0857…063ebacked No65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed0…b5b8backed Yes13c535.86$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.181513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaff…8354backed Yes36c520$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2d…ff5bbacked No70c515.29$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.462941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4c8…2be8backed Yes40c514.51$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.82231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes26c498.79$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.261127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e07…8178backed No66c483.49$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.331866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x016a…6f6fbacked Yes29c449.83$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.451225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes31c438.28$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0111045.5%50 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes2c431.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5611325.7%29 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes18c400.01$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727731.2%24 W · 53 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick26cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed7…60cbbacked No61c399.99$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf8a…07d3backed No66c399.99$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1371040%4 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb237…3816backed No65c399.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed No73c399.99$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1188…78f0backed Yes17c373.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes25c370$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.56814.7%10 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92bc…06bfbacked No66c350$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1192157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb036…5c79backed Yes35c336.33$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.722245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2194…3a90backed Yes28c325.32$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8411826.3%31 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c304.82$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1139518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes27c303.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.239627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Yes31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed7c…9400backed No69c297$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.072725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes40c282$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.810530.5%32 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x050e…9ac6backed Yes34c252.17$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.676630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes15c245.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8915925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x839b…81fcbacked Yes27c237.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf28…a8cfbacked No61c232.71$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.761258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes32c228.88$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.971,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.