TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5ed7…60cb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Valorant, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 52 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.4
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.1
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+103.1%+$152.29
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$122
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$919Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$380.56
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$156
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.09
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$69
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,083Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$417
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+57.1%+$109.02
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$36.09
All 15 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-56.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffsbacked Yangon Galacticos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+78.7%+$88.1
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffsbacked InterActive Philippines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Power Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+70.8%+$41.46
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Dota 2: Heroic vs Perú Rejects (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Dota 2: Rottweilas Latam vs GamerLegion (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham: North America Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Rottweilas Latam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$35
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Nuggetsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.65
Suns vs. Raptorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Bulls vs. Warriorsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$58
Nets vs. Jazzbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+66.7%+$16
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Barcelona Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$12
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsanbacked Fabian Marozsan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.26
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcanbacked Daniel Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.26
All 3 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blues vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Stars vs. Sabresbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Nova Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omegabacked Nova Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$63
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.