Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7357731d81135cf7a2d24c0e722f4f58adccf0ac10242f3e42f9a1a952df78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc38a…867fbacked No | 0c | 8,162$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 78c | 2,000$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.84 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…8072backed No | 76c | 1,788$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 25c | 1,446$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.17 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 18c | 1,444$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.91 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 44c | 1,403$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.68 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 57c | 1,358$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked No | 76c | 1,319$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked No | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0c32backed Yes | 26c | 1,138$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 42c | 1,133$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…9fe4backed No | 16c | 1,125$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 43c | 1,064$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 57c | 1,030$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…910abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 26c | 995.33$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.91 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…f847backed No | 1c | 979.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 51c | 979.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.44 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 43c | 944$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 44c | 934$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 43c | 909$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 40c | 892.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed No | 57c | 883$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 22c | 874.46$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.96 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 56c | 792$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 60c | 779$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes | 43c | 762$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 59c | 759$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed No | 76c | 757.8$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 56c | 749$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +110%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 44c | 746$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 40c | 735$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes | 43c | 693$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 689$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 57c | 687$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 40c | 679$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 57c | 673$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 665.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 57c | 620$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 56c | 611$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 56c | 587$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…70babacked No | 71c | 577.88$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 40c | 562$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 60c | 540$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 60c | 537$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 40c | 531$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 60c | 531$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 43c | 522$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 39c | 521$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.81 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 39c | 509.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 38c | 474$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 62c | 474$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.88 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 59c | 473$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 41c | 473$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 34c | 455.02$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 61c | 455$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 57c | 433$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 57c | 423$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 43c | 409$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…501bbacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 43c | 388$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 43c | 380.47$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 43c | 366$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 361.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 43c | 358$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 56c | 347$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…23a1backed No | 60c | 334.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 67c | 327.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 55c | 319$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 45c | 319$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 63c | 313.57$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 57c | 301$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 61c | 294.95$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 251.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 241.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 70c | 229.79$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.77 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 43c | 229$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 18c | 227.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 59c | 226$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.34 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…00dabacked Yes | 45c | 221.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 199.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked Yes | 43c | 196$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 43c | 190$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 40c | 183$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 60c | 183$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…5f64backed Yes | 27c | 182.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…232fbacked No | 64c | 177.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 41c | 170$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 29c | 167$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.69 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d8…e846backed No | 65c | 154.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…375bbacked Yes | 33c | 142$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 135.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa0…e2b0backed Yes | 38c | 132.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 37c | 129.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.