TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,795 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc38a…867fbacked No0c8,162$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes78c2,000$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.8413950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c9…8072backed No76c1,788$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.56850%4 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes25c1,446$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.1742738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No18c1,444$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.917439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes44c1,403$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.682763%17 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed No57c1,358$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.061546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked No76c1,319$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f61…c03ebacked No57c1,228$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.961050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes26c1,138$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.592045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked Yes42c1,133$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.591145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa872…9fe4backed No16c1,125$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.51060%6 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+77.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed Yes43c1,064$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.481643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No57c1,030$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.11560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae5…910abacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes26c995.33$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.917226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c87…f847backed No1c979.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes51c979.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.446752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed Yes43c944$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d6…9357backed Yes44c934$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.041154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes43c909$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x896e…8902backed Yes40c892.99$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.843240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaffd…b072backed No57c883$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.311060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes22c874.46$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.9631344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked No56c792$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.521442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No60c779$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes43c762$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.341050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…827bbacked No59c759$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.811942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed No76c757.8$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.931435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No56c749$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.441275%9 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+110%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed Yes44c746$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes40c735$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes43c693$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c689$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.994928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked No57c687$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.591127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed Yes40c679$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed No57c673$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c665.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No11c650$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed No57c620$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed No56c611$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.161560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked No56c587$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.721729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0cc…70babacked No71c577.88$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes40c562$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.21675%12 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed No60c540$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3242050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No60c537$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.22737%10 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes40c531$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.62352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No60c531$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.62429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes43c522$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.541855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes39c521$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.812254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes39c509.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.993672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes38c474$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.883246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed No62c474$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.88128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-89.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x486b…3ea7backed No59c473$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.071346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91ba…c705backed Yes41c473$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.072161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+49.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes34c455.02$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.513839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed No61c455$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.551353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c5…b4e1backed No57c433$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.811241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed No57c423$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.111931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes43c409$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.131361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+63.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee3d…501bbacked No63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes43c388$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.162842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No43c380.47$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.386825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes43c366$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes28c361.5$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.213140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes43c358$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.061136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No56c347$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.321435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b0…23a1backed No60c334.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9d3…6781backed No67c327.4$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202552%13 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No55c319$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.451833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes45c319$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked No63c313.57$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.712050%10 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6307…0447backed No57c301$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.571020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-69.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No61c294.95$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.523256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c251.53$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes35c241.74$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8415951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No70c229.79$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.772744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes43c229$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.531947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No18c227.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7411329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No59c226$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.342556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e3…00dabacked Yes45c221.8$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.81764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409855.1%54 W · 44 L+24.9wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+76.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c199.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No51c199.97$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes43c196$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.721050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes43c190$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.31850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes40c183$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.82360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+70.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked No60c183$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.81421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf751…5f64backed Yes27c182.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.61866.7%12 W · 6 L+5.6wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+107.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1bb6…232fbacked No64c177.21$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes41c170$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes29c167$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.697938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes25c160$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12012227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d8…e846backed No65c154.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed No64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f8…375bbacked Yes33c142$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+115.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No59c135.12$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa0…e2b0backed Yes38c132.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.71771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes37c129.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.97517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.