TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9939…d3bebacked No0c10,081$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.247812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No1c6,535$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e3…00dabacked Yes8c3,059$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.921764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No3c2,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754860.4%29 W · 19 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No0c2,409$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed No1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes35c1,420$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.977226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No10c1,188$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.997439.2%29 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.20per pick19cpaid+102%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc537…f385backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e91…134ebacked Yes33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6701100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc6…e280backed No67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8348…de9fbacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ec…5968backed No32c760.56$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.423636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes67c748.26$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.266752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ecc…dd76backed Yes58c689.92$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.521136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d2…dea8backed No73c684.94$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes2c636.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.55475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick22cpaid+1,438.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No11c619.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4120131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes48c515$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x303d…a1c9backed Yes41c510.2$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes47c503$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.592050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked No53c503$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.592254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No33c500$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1679855.1%54 W · 44 L+24.9wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+76.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xb82b…dd5fbacked No52c495$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed Yes48c435$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71fb…9b65backed Yes47c430$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked No53c430$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.91172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c426$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.74928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No12c419.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5720243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c416$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7769…9991backed Yes4c405.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.12825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+317.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes23c382.13$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.1315951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes3c337$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+733.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No56c333$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.459446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c331$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.611,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No20c328.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes15c326.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.396825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed No59c301.3$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7833…d56cbacked Yes42c300.41$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.412133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes4c300$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2883231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No9c299.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7511329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No52c291$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.321850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes50c279.4$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.43046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c274.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.241477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c273.54$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c265.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.242384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes38c260.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6328438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed Yes44c260$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.725728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6364…4b34backed Yes73c254.5$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.711060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c253.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.5658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes43c231.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.513043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed No52c224$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.48933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No59c220.49$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7321333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes9c214.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.936753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No52c210.89$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c205.08$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dbb…85cfbacked No49c204.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes17c189.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.191879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9179…4096backed No51c183$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.021250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf65b…3588backed No55c180.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed No58c168.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.381266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No60c166.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e32…d1c4backed Yes43c162.84$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.843450%17 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+43.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No34c151$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.348248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8544…3d33backed No69c144.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf633…c684backed No71c140.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcca9…af95backed No11c138.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+316.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed No11c136.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes41c122.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5625518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No52c121.1$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9826756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes32c119.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.427536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d1…c800backed Yes45c111.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.691127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No52c101.71$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed No71c100.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4be1…3feabacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12528%7 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+333.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57d5…f842backed No75c97.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.051866.7%12 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3401…08ffbacked No55c91.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e0…2fa0backed No55c82.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc4…413dbacked No57c81.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e8…630fbacked No68c80$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…e631backed No71c79.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.171573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d53…c88dbacked Yes39c77.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.33887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+70.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes18c76.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4412433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42da…f3d3backed No54c74.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x669f…447bbacked Yes51c74.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee2b…312fbacked No74c73.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.16425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+257.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c70.63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5534234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeed…1433backed No54c70.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.891050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes59c67.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6514335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No72c67.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.36445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98f8…fcaebacked No74c67.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfd5…c45dbacked Yes42c65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccc2…57b6backed Yes42c65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11c7…87a2backed Yes42c65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…6f30backed No58c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14a5…1441backed No58c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x127d…f7cbbacked No58c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x061c…1ad8backed No58c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.