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Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes0c12,011$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0310513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…2cc4backed Yes0c10,117$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes7c8,836$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.037226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c6,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…a238backed Yes1c5,728$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes0c4,940$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.887812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c4,468$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.762282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,185$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.61,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes5c2,573$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.746825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c2,031$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.021879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,527$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.07660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,518$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.667135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9eb…f8c1backed Yes1c1,287$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f53…e075backed Yes61c1,273$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes2c1,020$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0371…70c3backed Yes1c956.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.373429.4%10 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68ba…0e6abacked No54c920$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.35988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+65.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes46c910.44$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.81330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27fa…d880backed Yes3c845.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c790.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0eb…e702backed Yes13c787.46$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No46c702.29$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.4813950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes35c679.93$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.712334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c670.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.332384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes49c623$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes19c540.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.944219%8 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c512.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.062476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x303d…a1c9backed Yes3c510.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.781225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No52c489$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.7435355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e54…9d03backed Yes20c452.56$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes49c405.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed No49c393$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.431457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes51c393$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.431637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01f…8404backed Yes7c359.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+187.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e2e…4f7bbacked Yes36c337.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes51c332.08$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No54c325.11$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1814854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…f655backed Yes4c325$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeed…1433backed Yes29c324.82$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes47c320$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.82035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd103…469fbacked Yes64c314.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+87%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No68c303.51$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.148248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf91…82eebacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0473…a58dbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd301…2765backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…b669backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17445843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d5…5a9bbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e13…59dcbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8be7…a722backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06eb…ac5fbacked No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe745…453cbacked No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4154…ff71backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed No51c279$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked No51c279$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.711060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed No67c278.5$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.682755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b10…e48fbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0162…7785backed Yes36c240$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x513c…45ffbacked Yes36c240$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfcf…8f82backed Yes36c240$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac3…5edebacked No64c240$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd761…fd9ebacked No64c240$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeac7…d1fabacked No64c240$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5501…aa16backed Yes36c240$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd08…59ddbacked Yes36c240$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…3d32backed No64c240$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9599…4909backed No64c240$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed No63c205$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.852650%13 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfcb…38aebacked No49c202.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed No51c201$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.491369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+95.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed No49c200.09$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2710742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c191.74$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd9…433abacked Yes38c180$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a9…df25backed Yes38c180$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4267…13ddbacked Yes38c180$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x775c…9894backed Yes38c180$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe79c…e744backed No62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e0…36a8backed No62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d2…ddc5backed Yes38c180$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f1…16adbacked No62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x804e…a9adbacked No62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…5f59backed No62c180$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9179…4096backed No52c172.13$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.021250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a3…c6e8backed Yes7c160.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed49…8785backed No54c153.31$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.31771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No66c143.8$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked No70c142.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.37857.7%45 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed Yes49c136$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.641457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…21dabacked Yes33c133.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.672138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes20c124.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0612433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No40c112.87$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0226756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No68c112.54$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.432345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe4…9284backed Yes33c105.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd022…d7a0backed No39c101.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+51.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f0…aa1fbacked No76c101.09$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.091154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick67cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked No47c100.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.573154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf693…330abacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.