TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,652
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,652 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes1c4,398$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.411657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b33…9a34backed Yes75c3,995$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ed…797cbacked Yes57c3,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e3…00dabacked Yes20c2,538$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No22c2,385$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.2530649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x1000…7bdcbacked No45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes31c1,749$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.367226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No27c1,215$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.4850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes40c1,107$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.7435355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5cd7…27e6backed No40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes41c997.71$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No57c966$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.381637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No70c954.53$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.519942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9503…b863backed No79c832.7$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes43c830$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked No56c806$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes44c806$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.643545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…2238backed Yes37c697$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.891040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No63c548$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.76825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No60c543.19$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.285429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes37c492$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.041717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed No63c492$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.041258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes28c460.87$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1435652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes36c458.75$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.559446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes47c457$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.791154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+56.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked No53c457$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.791656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed No63c453$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.612650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6962…745ebacked No62c447.16$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.162642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No61c425$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.751650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes39c425$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.751833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes38c421$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.983246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No62c421$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.981376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes36c420$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes36c413.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No57c413$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.592454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes37c390$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.31723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed No63c390$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No50c331.02$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.514560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No55c303.59$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8315643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4230…c6eabacked No67c296.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ad…457bbacked No75c296.29$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.951250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No62c295.51$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.353036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d4c…f7debacked No69c291.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes37c281$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.971020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed No71c279.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.952528%7 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9b…307fbacked No73c274.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes39c250.48$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8932345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63af…5790backed Yes49c244.2$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.39633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked No63c244$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.281957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+58.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba14…59e9backed No61c242.28$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.28650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes37c237.49$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.873040%12 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c231.66$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes47c228$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.161338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes37c221.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0516433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes35c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes41c198.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes46c190.88$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.293641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes36c187$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.321060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c19…77cdbacked No63c176$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes47c166$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.024242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…5ed0backed No63c159.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.836858.8%40 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3850…4c39backed No63c158.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes64c155.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…e27abacked Yes24c150.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…2611backed No60c149.45$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes35c143.86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd13…3110backed No70c143.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+123.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ed…4911backed Yes46c137.7$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes43c136$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.482060%12 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+63.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c135.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8220749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc424…ebc9backed No75c134.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.161866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed No53c127$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.691338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…1e59backed No71c121.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.542751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes32c120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.612227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed No64c113$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes39c109.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.159942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b38…5623backed No68c103.58$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No65c100.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0118738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4519534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4d…bf6fbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.313444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed No62c95.44$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.569250%46 W · 46 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d90…b960backed No65c92.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.311030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No62c91.26$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.419040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1427…145abacked No69c88.82$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.871764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No68c87.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.621241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No49c87.32$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No62c85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.341346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes40c83.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3585725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe1a6…8e18backed Yes43c81.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354717%8 W · 39 L-7.2wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked No64c81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.161957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked No38c81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.444012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed Yes40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes31c79.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6615751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes25c78.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203542.9%15 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes42c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No62c74.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.247052.9%37 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes38c72.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.