TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3850…4c39backed No8c9,206$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.07966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d05…d278backed No1c3,218$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No3c2,106$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2150130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes37c1,953$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.7935355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No37c1,684$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes79c1,658$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.8823839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes34c1,139$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.097226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes47c1,010$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.31471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+106.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes47c950$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.51650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes49c914.72$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.7211329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed Yes34c903$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.981275%9 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+108.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No15c839.19$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes46c832$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.281741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No62c808$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.89942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No18c722$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.184928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No62c684$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.081145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No66c633$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.781758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No53c623$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.191330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No61c609.99$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.45429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No50c599.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes35c589$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.851361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+63.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No65c589$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.852751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b59…d12abacked Yes65c580.2$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No54c513$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.021250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed No53c513$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.891338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No26c460.24$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6758927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No48c449.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.515643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes71c421.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.745952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf86f…256fbacked Yes73c411.2$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.676450%32 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes32c399.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9913140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No53c399$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.471838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28c9…99aabacked Yes38c365$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed No52c357.68$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.959250%46 W · 46 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes60c341.22$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.022272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes46c335$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.93040%12 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No54c335$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.92045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes60c333.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.778867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked No54c319$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.261533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes38c319$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.781968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+81.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes51c300.93$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.528243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes46c273$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.422161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+92.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked No54c273$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.421957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+58.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab19…ccc1backed No58c270.37$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.581040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes58c270.28$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.1932345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed No66c270$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No48c257.47$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3420749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes59c253.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8210313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No53c249$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.971540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes36c245$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No64c245$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.82737%10 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes60c241.44$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes46c241.16$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3528438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No55c240.07$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5585725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed No27c238.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.976735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes61c219.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.818833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes46c212.75$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5416417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.316756.7%38 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4992…9cd4backed No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.136457.8%37 W · 27 L+7.7wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes76c166.66$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.752634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes58c166.22$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4435652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes48c155.8$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.539942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44e2…b51abacked No65c153.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes56c152$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8810246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d90…b960backed No43c150.29$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No63c146.88$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.843036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed No61c139$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.79119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes39c139$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.792321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x367a…d7c0backed No22c137.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e7b…7d59backed No58c129.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd8…9b9dbacked No41c121.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes49c116.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.942045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea5…ac86backed Yes61c114.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No53c110$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.32737%10 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed Yes43c108.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.875056%28 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf1…8506backed Yes65c107$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377061.4%43 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes58c106.37$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.536056.7%34 W · 26 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe180…8f49backed Yes46c102.16$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c100.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6539621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No17c100.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8112616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3489…7fffbacked No40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked No50c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54330.2%13 W · 30 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes45c99.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9915951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No58c98.48$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.441241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes53c93.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.813933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes44c90.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.825244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0e…33afbacked Yes44c89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid-8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84b0…1500backed No56c88.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdda7…85e6backed No68c88.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No63c86.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7313444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aff…54ccbacked No61c85.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7eb…e192backed Yes46c85.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…1e59backed No59c85.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c84.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6331728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes37c82.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.216433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No63c82.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.031346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd368…5813backed No61c82.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.