TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2b1…d1a2backed No1c6,326$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7575…4380backed No2c5,992$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No4c3,390$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2742738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5236…ab18backed No35c1,952$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.272138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c9…8072backed No65c1,705$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.81850%4 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No12c1,550$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.520243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked Yes33c1,416$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.721637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc112…f582backed No67c1,321$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.07520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-74.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes64c1,236$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.6531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c1,211$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.034928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x896e…8902backed Yes69c1,114$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.473240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked No54c1,071$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick53cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes46c1,046$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,024$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.971,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No54c1,019$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.26825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes46c911.24$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.071752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c853.56$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8534432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked No52c797$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.082142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…644ebacked Yes46c782$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.28944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d3…6781backed No68c768.91$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.042552%13 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac8e…64a9backed Yes48c669.93$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.12462.5%15 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+73.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes46c659$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.861435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed No54c647$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.382050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Yes46c633$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.822544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Yes46c609$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.861154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes33c605.43$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.347226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bca…53dcbacked Yes74c595.68$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.011747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed No54c527$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.58850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed No54c511$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.631442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes46c510$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.41723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked No54c497$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.38825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c7…be6fbacked No54c477$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+62.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes46c475$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed No54c475$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked No66c470$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.671729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53b7…4146backed Yes48c462$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed No54c431$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a41…1160backed Yes34c423$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No66c419$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.541560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes35c415$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.752060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked No65c415$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes31c389.15$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.8613140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed Yes35c376$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No17c374$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1611329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No67c360$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.23243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes33c360$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.21560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes75c359.17$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6428438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes46c331$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.741080%8 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.44per pick37cpaid+128.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes46c307$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.782759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked No54c307$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.781421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes46c303$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.621145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No54c302$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.083246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1375364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes33c298.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.763046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes70c287.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.163672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes34c280.54$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.546825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed Yes46c268$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.722352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+63.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x874a…d584backed No66c263$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.381225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes34c263$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.581643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed No66c263$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.581050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+81.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes47c262$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.861010%1 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick45cpaid-78.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed No53c262$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed Yes34c253$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.982147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0016…1b7abacked No66c253$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes55c250.98$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7415951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed Yes34c243$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.381050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed No70c229.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.691931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked No64c226$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.742050%10 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No38c219.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No54c211$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.941241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c210$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa098…81e4backed Yes48c203$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.56955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No62c201.42$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No54c199.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes74c184.37$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.772045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No16c162.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9830649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed No54c147$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.38119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No27c142.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c132.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8274…118dbacked No62c131.91$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed No54c129$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.661030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes33c128.37$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9842818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes67c121.86$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.613941%16 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f8…375bbacked Yes78c105.91$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+115.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1326…d13dbacked Yes46c105$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8440…a714backed Yes38c92.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.373748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed No22c89.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc533…88e0backed Yes57c87.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes43c86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.021560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No54c82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.284242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…14e8backed Yes73c77.62$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.975529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes65c75.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6332345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc525…a914backed No25c72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No53c71.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7335652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes29c68.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes33c65.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8816046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa865…5b8ebacked Yes37c62.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes33c60.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.53641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes47c60.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.065244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.