TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,111
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,111 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5664…f163backed No78c9,962$7,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.974355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,589$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.521,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb26…d418backed Yes7c2,400$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes25c1,887$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.173231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x71c9…8072backed No75c1,879$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.94850%4 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c1,845$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.524928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dc…b6e0backed Yes4c1,542$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes60c1,514$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.528243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes19c1,340$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.687226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No51c1,273$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.7523839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,272$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.047135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes12c1,179$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.846825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes51c1,060$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5421520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes15c1,022$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.783046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes41c958$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.782445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No55c900$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40215643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c835.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.12384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c799.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes7c795.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.667812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes31c785.04$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405425.9%14 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c753.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.631442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c748.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.221995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c700$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8544…3d33backed Yes46c653.91$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes6c647.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.711329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No70c572.41$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.417636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7289…4bffbacked No59c539$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes77c513.3$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3968867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c491.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.147611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c3…0783backed Yes53c491.11$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.981729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43c7…3efcbacked Yes7c465.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed No59c419$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed Yes53c388.07$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.995728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No61c367.97$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No59c356.64$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8815951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8440…a714backed Yes47c328.89$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.983748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26fb…a94fbacked Yes8c318.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…e251backed Yes66c303.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No40c299.98$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.495364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No71c287.97$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.737938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes23c276.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.187243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes41c267.31$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.617128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x897f…13ffbacked No54c258.84$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No58c256.85$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5513950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…2fb2backed No40c249.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes15c243.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.341879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa69a…a41cbacked Yes12c240$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No64c232.13$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8432345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d3…6781backed No41c228$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.622552%13 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc82…9530backed Yes67c227.5$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.931435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes11c223.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6311226.8%30 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes34c223$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.89446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6355…8edfbacked No45c222.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.93540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x310d…bed0backed Yes46c219.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes61c216.19$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c210.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bc2…171abacked No59c207.46$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57dd…c41ebacked Yes48c206.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7216447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb3…4268backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407421.6%16 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7277…ab80backed No48c199.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.991330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed Yes12c180.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.192313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes24c166.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No67c164.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.869942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fac…63f8backed Yes57c162.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.682733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No50c162.22$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No32c154.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.243256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9454…7f72backed Yes75c133.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No56c132.32$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No60c128$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8411424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2510657.5%61 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…9a7cbacked No52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes14c115.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5525518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed No30c106.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6714420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes42c105.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.263941%16 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202650%13 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4be1…3feabacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752528%7 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+333.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes40c94.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.612433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes37c89.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3318833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b5…0cf6backed No60c88.4$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked No49c87.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9511856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf751…5f64backed Yes57c87.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501866.7%12 W · 6 L+5.6wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+107.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6b48…9c41backed No55c87$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.971190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick60cpaid+81.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes55c85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.415461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb135…2d74backed No36c82.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…4623backed Yes38c82.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.842010%2 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-81.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed No76c81.51$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.512755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafc5…866bbacked No75c76.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6710352.4%54 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+63.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f57…3272backed No50c75.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.256825%17 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1e…0a48backed No36c75.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.281650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c5…ada8backed No44c72.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.651533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef86…aa48backed Yes23c67.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed No31c66.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.27536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes56c62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.722733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.7wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed No61c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.74736.2%17 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2ea…c543backed Yes62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.281546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No22c60$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.810121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f38…6720backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.