Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf79498f6fe674c3959fce48c3c28e5e18b2b205e99f9f58bcd8c237167e6d4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1369…bd79backed Yes | 3c | 9,073$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,582$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 3,739$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Yes | 66c | 3,659$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed Yes | 29c | 3,601$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 19c | 3,263$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.05 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,915$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.68 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…3d51backed Yes | 6c | 2,724$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 2,242$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,824$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.26 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,777$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,677$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…23aebacked Yes | 45c | 1,622$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.21 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…fe39backed Yes | 14c | 1,471$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,453$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,406$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…6764backed Yes | 67c | 1,339$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,321$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 13c | 1,292$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 48c | 1,255$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.43 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…2febbacked Yes | 2c | 1,217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -58%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…fc1abacked Yes | 13c | 1,181$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked No | 68c | 1,155$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 72c | 1,148$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 63c | 1,124$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,099$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 45c | 1,013$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…c4b7backed Yes | 2c | 975.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 1c | 962.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +1,438.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 37c | 962$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddb…b704backed Yes | 2c | 939.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked Yes | 3c | 924.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 51c | 918.86$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.09 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 42c | 917$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 42c | 877$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 10c | 834.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 3c | 812.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 24c | 800.05$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed Yes | 45c | 750$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 41c | 743.8$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 19c | 716.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 708.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed Yes | 4c | 698$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 42c | 671$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…81e6backed Yes | 6c | 628.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 79c | 623$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 5c | 611.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…c209backed Yes | 9c | 587.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 58c | 580$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 56c | 578.27$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 63c | 559$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 30c | 554.13$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.34 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 551.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed Yes | 50c | 543$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 11c | 530.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed No | 56c | 526$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 77c | 518.37$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 31c | 490.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.41 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 55c | 477$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 470.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 58c | 448$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 37c | 436$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…efc8backed No | 48c | 435.43$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 46c | 428$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…2387backed No | 55c | 418.04$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b7…fe37backed Yes | 8c | 409.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…11d5backed No | 34c | 408.33$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 37c | 393$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed No | 67c | 392.62$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 377.55$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 58c | 375$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8702…3c0ebacked Yes | 11c | 374.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 63c | 357$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 37c | 356$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…efa0backed No | 77c | 349.98$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked No | 58c | 342.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 10c | 340.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 59c | 340.27$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…e20ebacked Yes | 40c | 340.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 30c | 332.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.08 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed No | 55c | 332$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 19c | 325.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…0347backed Yes | 34c | 323.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…d7c0backed No | 42c | 311.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 42c | 308$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 75c | 306.3$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.97 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…4a52backed Yes | 6c | 305.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed No | 53c | 305$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 47c | 305$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…6015backed No | 72c | 301.27$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…417cbacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 5c | 296.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 30c | 290.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 58c | 290$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked Yes | 42c | 290$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 58c | 289$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 50c | 281$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes | 68c | 280.61$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.