TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1369…bd79backed Yes3c9,073$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes2c5,582$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.68812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c3,739$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.231879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes66c3,659$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.592634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed Yes29c3,601$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.47944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes19c3,263$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.057812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes12c2,915$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.687226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbd…3d51backed Yes6c2,724$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes5c2,242$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.712918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes14c1,824$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.266825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,777$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.692282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c1,677$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.891995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes45c1,622$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.213641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1b…fe39backed Yes14c1,471$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,453$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,406$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.291,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f7…6764backed Yes67c1,339$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.35683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,321$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes13c1,292$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3530649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No48c1,255$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.439942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf920…2febbacked Yes2c1,217$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.19520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-58%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes10c1,200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.783429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c28…fc1abacked Yes13c1,181$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.53825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b1d…820cbacked No68c1,155$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes72c1,148$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.513138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed No63c1,124$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.88944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,099$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.68660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,034$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.264928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed Yes45c1,013$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.85128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-89.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdecf…c4b7backed Yes2c975.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes1c962.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.78475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick22cpaid+1,438.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed Yes37c962$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.941442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ddb…b704backed Yes2c939.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…66acbacked Yes3c924.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.241631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No51c918.86$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.0915951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes42c917$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes42c877$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.341216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-72.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3960…0975backed Yes10c834.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.244112.2%5 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes3c812.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.375324.5%13 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes24c800.05$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.95867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45f0…4435backed Yes45c750$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.51030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes41c743.8$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.33043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb3…4268backed Yes19c716.7$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.697421.6%16 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c708.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.324136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bd…af16backed Yes4c698$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed Yes42c671$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.821457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bdb…81e6backed Yes6c628.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.872035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd824…528bbacked No79c623$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+63.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes5c611.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xae9d…c209backed Yes9c587.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No58c580$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.62556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked No56c578.27$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.272138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed No63c559$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.83944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No30c554.13$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.349446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c551.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa27…d1d3backed Yes50c543$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes11c530.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7786…7914backed No56c526$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No77c518.37$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.419942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No31c490.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.4134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c9…99aabacked No55c477$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c470.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.134625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No58c448$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.161540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98cb…a127backed Yes37c436$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1311…efc8backed No48c435.43$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes46c428$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.881233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x829f…2387backed No55c418.04$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b7…fe37backed Yes8c409.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.911650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d44…11d5backed No34c408.33$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.531030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes37c393$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.412339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72e5…6412backed No67c392.62$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+139.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No80c377.55$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7820749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed No58c375$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.52254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8702…3c0ebacked Yes11c374.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No63c357$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.092040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes37c356$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.721838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa583…efa0backed No77c349.98$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked No58c342.84$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No10c340.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.217414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No59c340.27$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.874560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5352…e20ebacked Yes40c340.03$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.531650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No30c332.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.0815629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11e9…8e90backed No55c332$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2283…35c4backed Yes19c325.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.253246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…0347backed Yes34c323.88$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x367a…d7c0backed No42c311.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.441540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes42c308$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.362128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes75c306.3$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.9728438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x104d…4a52backed Yes6c305.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.43100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0af…7ec6backed No53c305$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes47c305$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.352321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2841…6015backed No72c301.27$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.461266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x716f…417cbacked No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes5c296.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3510520%21 W · 84 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes30c290.74$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.310533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No58c290$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.81947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked Yes42c290$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-55.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No58c289$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.383545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed No50c281$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+83.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes68c280.61$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.39650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+225.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.