TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c1,604$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…59e9backed No68c1,459$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.13650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61b5…de77backed Yes14c1,438$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes43c1,435$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.011637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed No62c1,293$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.971266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee0…b4a1backed Yes1c1,209$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes32c961.83$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.057226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c858.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.234928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c844.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x646f…23c3backed No55c750$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c722.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.627135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No57c676$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.682763%17 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes48c649.57$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes7c640.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9912023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes45c630.85$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2813046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95b…1f15backed Yes44c552$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No75c515$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.751752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x459a…7a07backed No60c503.75$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed No61c494.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.622528%7 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d8…4c30backed No56c444$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.361040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes26c437.86$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.126825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes45c424.07$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.063429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No60c416.31$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.893036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes45c401$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.452123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes11c400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4236035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes12c395.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.621879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0c…6279backed Yes25c394$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No57c377$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.111758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes43c377$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes42c370.67$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.123043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked No53c363$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.611729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes36c354$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes11c349.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.762128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+136.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes45c349$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.051338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1104…5535backed No62c332.69$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c312.2$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes44c305$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.23545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c304.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked No56c283$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.521030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No59c271.6$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78e1…10e6backed No79c253.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c28…fc1abacked Yes36c252.8$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.76825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No56c238$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.721442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes41c235.62$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.942634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7833…d56cbacked Yes43c233$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes14c231.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No60c226.17$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.574560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3960…0975backed Yes22c225.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.734112.2%5 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes25c219.53$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3825339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c214.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.874136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked No62c202$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6813138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes44c182$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.082347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f8…8033backed No55c180.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.46683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes38c175$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c173.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c171.53$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No53c169$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.432650%13 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+49.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dc1…775ebacked No55c163.18$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes37c151.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.631344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x469e…2411backed No55c149.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No57c149.49$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2216433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6318…12e4backed No55c146.46$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.414100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+113.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b92…7585backed No53c145$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.152441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6bc…0648backed No64c140.03$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c140$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0cbb…b9d1backed Yes42c131.57$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes30c130$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb701…59f7backed No56c128.46$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00b…fbcabacked No56c127$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes27c123$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.594511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed Yes41c121.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed Yes44c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes39c118$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2542818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d1…c800backed Yes44c117.46$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.911127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb2…1993backed Yes38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes32c104.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1719428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes39c102.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes43c102$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.864242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3829653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b60…49bfbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3816417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7081…b068backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+52.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdfcb…38aebacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ab…c2a6backed No62c97.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+121.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53f4…a78dbacked No55c90.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No79c87.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4626756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f11…5ed0backed No50c86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436858.8%40 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes19c82.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes42c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.46952.2%36 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2025…8075backed Yes17c79.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb920…3db4backed Yes40c75.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ec…5968backed Yes41c74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No55c72.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9316046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd356…963dbacked Yes49c72.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353070%21 W · 9 L+8.9wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+96.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No70c71.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.834953.1%26 W · 23 L+9.2wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+82.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes25c71.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8415951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.