TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes0c7,369$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes9c4,373$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.4917740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a4…a4babacked Yes0c3,305$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes1c2,717$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.151657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes31c1,743$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.667226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes17c1,580$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.665731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,555$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.021,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes10c1,381$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1457536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f2…e1dcbacked No64c1,031$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+1,401.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c944.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.597135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes44c859$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.962445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…b2b5backed Yes11c699.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.92516%4 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c681.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.544928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes37c602$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.741540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c600.66$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4920749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No56c586$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.841338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes20c582.49$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.92045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0eb…e702backed No70c532.08$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.981546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes5c527.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4311320.4%23 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c525.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No66c515.19$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.585429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed No69c506.46$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.461266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3513138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a2…e80fbacked No68c443.51$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.511070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes36c435.02$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.564511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes35c405.91$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.323839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed No56c392$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed No63c369$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.531233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes36c334.75$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3850…4c39backed No58c329.31$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes23c320.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.779942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c313.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.844195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes25c299.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c299.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No75c298.49$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf100…2fcabacked No56c286$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.841145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c285.15$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7634234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ec…5968backed Yes34c278.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Yes44c275$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed No67c273.29$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.651291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick62cpaid+50.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c4d…bf6fbacked No76c270$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.661861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked No63c233$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.211435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed49…8785backed No68c220.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.35771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d90…b960backed No71c200.74$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.971030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes43c187.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.995244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd368…5813backed No67c180.95$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c178.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf734…7382backed No66c159.16$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes30c154.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xba14…59e9backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe124…9d4ebacked No75c140.54$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes36c139.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c136.22$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes44c130$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes33c129.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.412227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204e…2925backed No78c128.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.441275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f75…550abacked Yes24c124.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44e2…b51abacked No66c113.41$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No78c113.38$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.086445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No72c102.22$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.726756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3313440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes33c99.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9916417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No73c94.7$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcc…10e7backed No58c86.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No72c85$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6911436%41 W · 73 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf567…b53cbacked Yes17c84.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0360%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f11…5ed0backed No60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.336858.8%40 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed Yes40c79.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.996855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc3cf…1e59backed No59c74.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.522751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes35c72.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa53d…9710backed No75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes46c65.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3635355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1301…2cf7backed No61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.571080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ab…d883backed No63c63.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.18875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+88.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f2…25b0backed No66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed No64c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.34358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+52.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes34c58.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2f…0932backed No54c57.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed Yes38c53.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb1…3fbebacked No58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick47cpaid+49.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed No66c51.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.49250%46 W · 46 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3074…bae5backed No58c51.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda7…85e6backed No69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No58c48.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5229254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda2d…56e2backed No66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.451040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb798…7030backed No72c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafd8…9b9dbacked No68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.123250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No67c37.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc9…63b2backed No72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.721978.9%15 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed No74c34.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.936735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.