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Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,330
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,330 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1369…bd79backed No0c52,012$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf1…e06bbacked No6c39,424$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71c…7263backed No0c8,702$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ef…b723backed No0c4,029$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.891533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…66acbacked No11c2,761$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.361631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No20c2,247$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6150130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd022…d7a0backed No63c1,480$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+51.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c28…fc1abacked Yes38c1,104$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.24825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.086752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a68…4182backed No3c1,042$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc537…f385backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes47c990$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No7c949.1$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.545364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes39c942.51$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.2358927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes45c860$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4732347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked Yes39c815$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.152045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No76c798$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.48825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No61c710$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick63cpaid-78.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x944e…a326backed No74c686.8$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes34c672.55$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.747226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed Yes24c656$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.561241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…efc8backed No64c651.5$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.99540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes47c622.43$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No59c599$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.41922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed No53c544$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.322236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed No55c538$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x33e3…00dabacked Yes63c536.04$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.741764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5236…ab18backed No60c498.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes41c471$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c465.46$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.6630649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed Yes41c445$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.551435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes43c408.06$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.063046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No61c403$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.83850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Yes39c383$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No61c375$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.752544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a84…f8a5backed No61c370$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed Yes39c370$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No7c360$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.711329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2841…6015backed Yes44c343.66$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.661266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No56c329.47$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1815951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes43c321.68$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.56825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No54c320.73$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.523036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes39c312$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.322030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21013140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1923043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes51c297.9$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.173641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes45c297.23$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.045127.5%14 W · 37 L-8.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes47c297.08$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0816417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes67c296.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.963672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66e8…0838backed Yes68c295.62$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.624124.4%10 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed No59c282$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.38850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+83.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked No55c268$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes38c259.19$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.710533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes54c258.6$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.392634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes35c258.33$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.331250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes34c248.66$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3929254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes42c236.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.228243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes45c221.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.743429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes43c192.17$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5410742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed No59c189$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.511353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe507…eddebacked No58c172.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes46c161.13$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.136952.2%36 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03c3…6050backed No56c160.2$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed Yes41c154$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.861145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e42…032dbacked Yes40c149.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e1…b640backed No67c148.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes24c142$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.923246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…9d52backed No8c137$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes46c134.88$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.889942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d53…c88dbacked Yes60c129.4$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.07887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+70.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed Yes50c128.83$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.23644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No30c102.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.684928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29bb…6d18backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7081…b068backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+52.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6313138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ec…41d1backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8903…0dc2backed No54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No52c99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.220749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9dc1…775ebacked No56c97.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes52c97.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.088452.4%44 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf75…02d1backed No55c90.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e34…554bbacked No67c85.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed No60c76.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes44c74.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.935652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed Yes54c74.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.036735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes27c69.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.11879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa424…d2d9backed No64c69.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes44c67.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.615244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39f7…c922backed No57c66.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd356…963dbacked Yes54c65.26$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.263070%21 W · 9 L+8.9wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+96.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No59c65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.620035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe19c…0b8dbacked Yes42c63.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.641353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid+12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes41c63.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.84560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes51c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.64511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.818833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.