TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$765,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$760,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $765,265 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 593 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2a…58afbacked No13c19,696$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.4917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbae…7b24backed Yes16c18,493$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,580.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+534.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c28…fc1abacked No0c17,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No46c13,742$6,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,352.284355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked No1c12,273$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0710513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes24c12,229$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,233.2351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed No0c12,131$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5416417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No18c10,735$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.7728734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes10c10,508$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,452.2312654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed No64c10,280$6,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,542.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010333%34 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b1…38f5backed Yes11c9,759$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,688.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes55c7,287$4,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,257.2623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No62c6,799$4,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,234.6314827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No25c6,622$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.8837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed No0c6,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x359d…d7ebbacked No6c6,245$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.190%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fd…e685backed Yes62c5,866$3,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No71c5,855$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,180.215942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes13c5,683$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,936.18837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+55.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bbb…986bbacked No2c5,671$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.412532%8 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes55c5,524$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.325131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4586…c4bebacked Yes70c5,211$3,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf65b…3588backed No2c4,910$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.141040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed No56c4,818$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.311163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeed…1433backed Yes47c4,758$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.721050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2e…4f7bbacked No1c4,133$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb701…59f7backed No1c4,094$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5197…610fbacked Yes58c3,991$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No50c3,858$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.7738247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes43c3,631$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.059942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7657backed Yes46c3,399$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick27cpaid+132.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes70c3,373$2,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.0148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No31c3,363$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.7213950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No62c3,191$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.6820438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed Yes36c3,189$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.675728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed No4c3,152$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.13429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked No79c2,997$2,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,366.56520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5c4…0926backed No73c2,965$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.512948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd62…6a7ebacked No70c2,818$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No61c2,796$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.9316648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb1…c109backed No71c2,700$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes22c2,649$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0548…66a0backed No15c2,575$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.822548%12 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No47c2,500$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.7613544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No67c2,464$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.431861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No34c2,415$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.0519648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c2,400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.17135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbd…2bfbbacked No26c2,399$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.77633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked No66c2,374$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.65541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Yes14c2,318$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.321861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+45.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90ba…6442backed No1c2,313$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No15c2,282$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.7658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes78c2,115$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.44936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed No38c2,106$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.087335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Yes38c2,064$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.7875%6 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+87.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No22c1,994$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.175942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes55c1,985$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.772931%9 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No52c1,977$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.8811329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed No8c1,922$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No40c1,871$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.7840939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes42c1,868$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.3720131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked No54c1,798$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.13834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x665d…5bd3backed Yes39c1,777$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.98650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No14c1,754$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.34928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes29c1,700$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2017226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked No27c1,700$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.251450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x184f…45a1backed No65c1,679$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0891435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes70c1,675$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.286066.7%40 W · 20 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c1,664$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.391,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No45c1,597$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.9742329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No29c1,589$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.3389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b1…0a31backed No2c1,514$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No38c1,488$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.4816447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes61c1,484$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.721250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes66c1,458$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.968243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes14c1,424$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.366149.2%30 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No73c1,418$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.399446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No77c1,357$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.6918151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes74c1,348$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.737751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bfa…f779backed Yes14c1,348$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.162634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dfa…9c89backed No17c1,334$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.026752.2%35 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed No50c1,309$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.086845.6%31 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No11c1,248$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14015629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes68c1,172$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.2334440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3695…0c7cbacked No44c1,140$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.63475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+252%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes24c1,137$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.048345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed Yes30c1,081$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.516735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf24c…69d5backed No58c1,072$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.79825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x367a…d7c0backed Yes25c1,054$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.281540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf5…d8d5backed No14c1,047$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8666…7e33backed No12c1,044$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes10c1,031$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.68530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes32c987.93$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.29930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50a3…7c05backed No46c941.5$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.442060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f7…6764backed Yes67c926.1$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes24c920.41$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.8721537.7%81 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No39c907.25$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.8516041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked No80c899.99$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No46c883.23$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.0214854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.