TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,492 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7028…e0e9backed No2c1,860$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.214854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…59e9backed No66c1,500$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes49c1,407$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.877732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No21c1,322$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.5831344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes29c1,042$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.297226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes43c897$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.292437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No6c799$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4150130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9815625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No51c658$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.58933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes50c530.43$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.0615951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed No57c526$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.821266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed No56c524$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.441450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes47c479$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.871752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes44c477$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.124242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No6c454.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.911329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No53c436$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+181.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No65c346.89$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.637636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes43c341$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.371258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed No57c340$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No57c337$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.092326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-61.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x863b…7c6fbacked Yes49c316$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes49c313$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.631637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21013140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes38c299.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9910533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No23c294$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4829254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes39c259.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2828438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed Yes44c245$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes38c205.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.295244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13413138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No56c198$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.882948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No42c185.03$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.23036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No56c176.32$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x129f…7b9ebacked No59c169.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.391145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes41c168.53$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4334234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes71c160.28$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.283414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes64c153.49$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.544511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No51c152.55$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1585725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes29c140$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9912227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25f…a460backed Yes40c139.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.831741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb964…b248backed No74c138.13$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.82548%12 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes64c137.82$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.822045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No21c133.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.64928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a9…0f2bbacked Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+46.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fda…4ebabacked No66c108.72$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes47c106.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.219942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes28c104.37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.898867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4042738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4026756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0810742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7081…b068backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+52.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes33c98.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.896825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes61c98.53$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5316417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90fa…cebdbacked Yes56c96.69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+602.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…1a0bbacked No58c93.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes33c90.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5112325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5352…e20ebacked No22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0378…5a37backed No54c87.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes46c86.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2532345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x251f…b5f8backed No60c83.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes37c81.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.164219%8 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa514…00c9backed No64c78.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7165…3d7abacked No62c69.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f6d…0556backed No57c67.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c64.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd356…963dbacked Yes49c60.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.843070%21 W · 9 L+8.9wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+96.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8fcc…8ef0backed No53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes49c58.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8497…a3b4backed No23c58.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5550%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ea5…ac86backed Yes72c55.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b37…8722backed No22c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No64c50.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0620749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x913b…9d52backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba5c…8b52backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2314335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe101…06e7backed Yes46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5d…7501backed Yes65c41.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No30c40.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0316433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7266…491bbacked No51c38.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbb…283fbacked Yes62c38.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb920…3db4backed Yes67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.312152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f66…a5a7backed No57c35.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No60c34.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.057458.1%43 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed No57c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes63c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.36056.7%34 W · 26 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No37c31.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No42c31.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1331728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1212…9aeebacked No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef6c…33efbacked No50c29.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9435…e478backed Yes40c29.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.841080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+110.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66f2…2badbacked Yes46c29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.731450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes49c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes47c26.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0211452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ff…916fbacked Yes47c25.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.67850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9127…f2dcbacked No68c25.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8be…0bfbbacked No49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+42.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa870…011cbacked No67c23.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.