TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe101…06e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT5435.2%19 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.26
France to score first vs. Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$13.16
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$16.89
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$33.73
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$41.55
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+203%+$40.61
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$16.15
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)backed Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$10.45
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+222.6%+$75.63
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+316.1%+$316.13
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+117.4%+$23.48
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25.35
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+108.8%+$10.88
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$45.83
All 17 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+89.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.