TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Norwayof Brazil, Norway
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,923,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,777,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,923,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,443 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09b4…7320backed Brazil71c1,984,964$1,414,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414,394.931758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed Norway31c1,022,285$317,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704,790.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Brazil14c871,803$120,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120,423.4366846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Norway61c678,397$411,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266,516.3874752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Brazil69c500,000$345,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345,00033538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…ba32backed Norway32c332,069$105,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226,342.291485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.8wins+0.34per pick51cpaid+88.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Brazil68c252,767$171,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,499.218,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Norway28c250,615$70,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180,442.55334%18 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Brazil69c211,279$145,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145,287.08966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Norway31c209,463$65,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143,698.0420955.5%116 W · 93 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Norway32c186,924$59,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127,312.311,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Norway32c177,777$56,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,548.018246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005c…8cc2backed Norway30c164,428$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,428.431020%2 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-51.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbc1b…9d59backed Brazil70c161,870$112,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,871.785967.8%40 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a26…73c3backed Norway31c150,000$46,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,499.942650%13 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Norway53c140,890$74,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,654.7737223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Brazil64c128,323$82,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,522.061,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Norway29c127,837$37,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,764.386546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Norway30c126,520$38,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,289.757126.8%19 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Brazil68c117,927$80,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,382.1877152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Brazil16c112,730$17,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,684.4336939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Norway57c111,828$63,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,325.382,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Norway30c100,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,00017949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Norway29c94,416$27,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,035.586114.8%9 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Brazil69c87,516$60,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,060.529952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Brazil69c82,589$57,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,292.662,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Norway30c82,000$24,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,539.7534247.7%163 W · 179 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Brazil69c79,390$54,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,490.913259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…f861backed Brazil70c77,742$54,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,304.951752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Brazil70c70,000$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,999.8517852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Brazil71c66,725$47,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,374.596524.6%16 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Norway33c66,489$21,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,547.4614843.2%64 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69c5…1e01backed Norway32c66,028$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,028.233243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8028…6117backed Brazil71c65,029$46,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,170.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Brazil68c55,215$37,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,495.311,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Norway28c50,050$14,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,035.97345.2%33 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9d…3c52backed Norway29c50,050$14,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,535.181952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x772d…45bbbacked Norway29c49,943$14,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,303.446819.1%13 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Brazil66c47,993$31,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,588.5853448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Norway33c45,397$14,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,416.2226320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c58…a5a1backed Brazil70c42,230$29,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,716.512520%5 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c87…bf18backed Brazil71c41,874$29,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,589.191060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Norway30c41,667$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,166.677545.3%34 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Norway28c41,197$11,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,661.6121444.4%95 W · 119 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5d…946ebacked Brazil68c40,179$27,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,439.13250%16 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Norway29c40,000$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,399.7920724.6%51 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1078…3385backed Norway33c39,799$13,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,665.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+51.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Brazil66c38,940$25,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,788.4810251%52 W · 50 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Norway30c36,080$10,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,255.796913%9 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed Brazil68c35,520$24,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,153.532948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66d5…9e9fbacked Norway29c35,000$10,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,849.733748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6219…aa6fbacked Brazil51c33,962$17,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,177.1110057%57 W · 43 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Norway30c33,333$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,333.3332429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Brazil67c33,138$22,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,213.035234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd532…25efbacked Norway30c33,067$9,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,146.78837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Brazil67c32,239$21,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,511.5642345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Brazil67c30,529$20,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,395.381,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Norway30c30,000$9,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,90022229.7%66 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Norway33c29,999$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,099.2913331.6%42 W · 91 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Norway32c29,000$9,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,72014553.8%78 W · 67 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3636…4a00backed Brazil0c28,980$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.98476.4%3 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x694d…9aadbacked Norway36c28,416$10,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,321.524650%23 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…ea94backed Brazil71c28,169$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00013725.5%35 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1396…62b5backed Norway30c28,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,599.874540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed Norway28c27,800$7,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0166053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11e1…5621backed Norway39c27,236$10,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,675.9813635.3%48 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7efe…2e32backed Brazil76c27,030$20,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,485.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9941…0b8dbacked Norway29c23,275$6,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,575.447941.8%33 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Brazil70c22,848$15,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,995.881233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed Norway49c22,773$11,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,503.742560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b1d…1a19backed Norway31c22,318$6,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,399.426021.7%13 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-52.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Norway29c21,998$6,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,618.510012%12 W · 88 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec44…c92bbacked Brazil71c21,954$15,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,587.698521.2%18 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6322…0c4abacked Brazil71c21,500$15,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,265540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed Brazil70c21,429$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.997740.3%31 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89e1…ea4cbacked Norway34c20,014$6,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,194.58250%41 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Norway30c20,002$6,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,001.4417452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Norway30c20,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+95.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5fae…4079backed Norway32c20,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,7006833.8%23 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a7…3362backed Norway32c20,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,599.956038.3%23 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Norway29c20,000$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,149.8512536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Norway29c19,999$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,199.644341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8043…121bbacked Brazil59c19,998$11,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,792.333125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x072f…ffddbacked Brazil67c19,792$13,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,224.688450%42 W · 42 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed Brazil71c19,026$13,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,508.77225%18 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Brazil45c18,931$8,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,481.943,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf74…29cdbacked Norway31c18,738$5,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,980.571145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Brazil62c18,546$11,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,408.564,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Brazil69c18,101$12,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,490.6722834.6%79 W · 149 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Brazil70c18,000$12,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,584.9611637.1%43 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b52…a8a8backed Brazil53c17,222$9,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,089.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Norway30c17,177$5,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,02413959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fce…a7c8backed Brazil18c17,041$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0507032.9%23 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Norway31c16,792$5,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,630.7433549%164 W · 171 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a34…c216backed Norway30c16,667$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,666.678731%27 W · 60 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9796…e75fbacked Norway30c16,550$4,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,584.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x332a…c9a2backed Brazil58c15,941$9,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,190.17237.5%27 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Brazil68c15,236$10,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,431.8329916.7%50 W · 249 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked Norway30c15,000$4,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,549.9433555.5%186 W · 149 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe94…8a3dbacked Norway29c15,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,599.822147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.