TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Brazil (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Norwayof Brazil, Norway
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,398,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,391,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,398,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 739 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Norway73c393,882$288,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,864.724,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Brazil31c200,000$61,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,999.9622348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d18…24a6backed Norway70c100,822$70,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,246.712466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Norway70c90,547$62,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,614.777949.4%39 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Norway69c78,123$53,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,215.2374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Brazil30c75,041$22,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,547.128,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Brazil26c60,270$15,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,670.2464446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked Brazil27c58,703$16,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,125.659948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c92…4e7cbacked Brazil34c35,815$12,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,064.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Brazil30c32,644$9,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,793.148135.8%29 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Brazil31c32,258$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00018740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e2…9e36backed Brazil30c29,200$8,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,7603857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Norway79c27,277$21,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,653.072,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9340…ae1dbacked Brazil20c23,450$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,690.097416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c58…a5a1backed Brazil30c20,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0002520%5 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Norway74c18,893$13,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,983.233,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Brazil29c18,314$5,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,368.452,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Norway80c17,671$14,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,534.220955.5%116 W · 93 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Brazil27c17,638$4,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,684.025234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…5e86backed Brazil20c16,900$3,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,38011642.2%49 W · 67 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…ea94backed Brazil31c16,129$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00013725.5%35 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Norway53c16,065$8,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,550.53132.3%10 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+71.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Norway73c15,000$10,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,05013059.2%77 W · 53 L+31.0wins+0.24per pick35cpaid+118.1%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xc1fd…948ebacked Norway70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9917416.1%28 W · 146 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Brazil30c12,272$3,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,662.22,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff1…2dd7backed Brazil30c11,680$3,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5041553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Norway70c10,558$7,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,167.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45f…4e8dbacked Brazil30c10,424$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.232846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34a…78c7backed Brazil29c10,345$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00013721.2%29 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec6…50cdbacked Brazil30c10,226$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.84544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Brazil30c10,001$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.421,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed Brazil20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00028229.4%83 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Brazil26c9,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34025019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Norway70c9,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7008847.7%42 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Norway70c9,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70040655.7%226 W · 180 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32d8…4cf8backed Brazil20c8,890$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7781625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…43c2backed Norway80c8,873$7,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.61540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Norway71c8,779$6,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.9170244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Brazil24c7,815$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.5136247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Brazil25c7,248$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,81213843.5%60 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Norway70c6,985$4,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.372,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8a…cb94backed Brazil20c6,362$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.6818056.1%101 W · 79 L+14.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee39…c0fbbacked Brazil29c6,358$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.744221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed Brazil30c5,990$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.018048.8%39 W · 41 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Norway69c5,800$4,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7729266.3%61 W · 31 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Brazil30c5,726$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.9114727.2%40 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Brazil22c5,423$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.4320646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ec9…1e0cbacked Brazil30c5,172$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.58137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-84.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Brazil26c5,095$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.7875335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Norway70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5007349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Norway70c4,968$3,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.271,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Norway72c4,621$3,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.912,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…e8e1backed Brazil31c4,558$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39411437.7%43 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Brazil25c4,500$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10517544%77 W · 98 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Norway79c4,325$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.1518543.8%81 W · 104 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Norway70c4,091$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.42334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77d1…1c30backed Brazil20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002552%13 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Brazil29c4,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16042710.3%44 W · 383 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…0047backed Brazil25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.994344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d17…5297backed Brazil31c3,664$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.773821.1%8 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+96.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Brazil30c3,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.983534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0724…9091backed Brazil30c3,440$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.897533.3%25 W · 50 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Norway72c3,408$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.211,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Brazil15c3,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50053629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a27…9edbbacked Brazil31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Norway71c3,127$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.7611254.5%61 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe98c…8792backed Brazil31c3,029$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.99150.5%46 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed Norway53c3,003$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.8125821.3%55 W · 203 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Norway69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93043248.4%209 W · 223 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Brazil30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9910128.7%29 W · 72 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Brazil30c2,964$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.315150.3%76 W · 75 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5461…c1adbacked Norway76c2,910$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.452055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Brazil30c2,777$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.0936123.5%85 W · 276 L-1.7wins0.00per pick24cpaid-21.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Norway70c2,708$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.071,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Brazil41c2,707$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.1387237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Brazil29c2,625$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.1329952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Norway70c2,435$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.821,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1963…dd0cbacked Brazil48c2,276$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.7353920.6%111 W · 428 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e64…8bf8backed Brazil30c2,264$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa698…db5ebacked Norway70c2,222$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.67962%49 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Brazil25c2,167$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.132,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Brazil21c2,157$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.1537223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Brazil29c2,150$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.560511.4%69 W · 536 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Norway65c2,077$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9926459.5%157 W · 107 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Brazil21c2,074$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.271,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Norway71c2,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59055044.7%246 W · 304 L-27.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd255…4676backed Norway69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.9821450.5%108 W · 106 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f6…a196backed Norway51c1,951$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.6146012.4%57 W · 403 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Brazil25c1,910$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.42552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1402…4853backed Brazil31c1,903$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.815317%26 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Norway76c1,899$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.744,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Norway77c1,887$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.0674034.1%252 W · 488 L-36.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Norway74c1,862$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.8698134.8%341 W · 640 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Brazil30c1,800$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9712343.1%53 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x552c…e786backed Norway71c1,700$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4932544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74b6…9823backed Norway70c1,698$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.457754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…fd82backed Brazil4c1,669$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.521334.3%73 W · 140 L+1.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc330…e776backed Brazil30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016732.3%54 W · 113 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Brazil29c1,602$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.851020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-56.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b1…d21fbacked Brazil25c1,584$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017527.4%48 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.