Brazil vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa48c938b857c4636ce7055787e045f52a275b38961b919bf27edb39eb8423740

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,077 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	44c	14,461$6,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,343.15	1,559	52.4%817 W · 742 L	+97.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over	55c	11,520$6,387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,133.29	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	55c	7,348$4,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,295.65	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	56c	2,250$1,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$989.1	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	44c	1,901$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836.32	831	53.3%443 W · 388 L	+15.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Under	45c	1,869$847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$847.2	791	49.2%389 W · 402 L	+28.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Under	47c	1,413$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.6	770	51.3%395 W · 375 L	+29.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Under	47c	999.99$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	644	43.3%279 W · 365 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Under	44c	979.44$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.7	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Under	45c	891.2$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.79	455	48.6%221 W · 234 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	53c	857.69$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.34	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	51c	794.12$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.12	1,601	47.8%765 W · 836 L	+51.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b6…2d0fbacked Under	45c	676.33$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.35	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	55c	631.97$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.37	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Under	44c	628.99$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.3	138	50%69 W · 69 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under	44c	606.79$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.99	342	49.1%168 W · 174 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over	54c	600$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276	586	42.8%251 W · 335 L	+17.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d8…100dbacked Over	26c	574.81$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.81	327	39.1%128 W · 199 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	55c	572.46$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.55	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under	42c	521$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.83	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Under	45c	464.38$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.23	295	56.6%167 W · 128 L	+19.9wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Under	44c	464$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.56	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Under	43c	442.53$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.2	185	43.8%81 W · 104 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	48c	431$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.4	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea7…9d9abacked Over	51c	389.99$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.09	227	30.4%69 W · 158 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Under	49c	389$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.07	166	47%78 W · 88 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under	45c	356.97$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.11	1,438	40.1%576 W · 862 L	-40.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Under	47c	326.16$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.72	1,380	40.2%555 W · 825 L	-51.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over	53c	320.55$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.06	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under	45c	311.15$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.02	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Under	48c	286$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.48	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Under	45c	284$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.4	650	36.9%240 W · 410 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Under	43c	250$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	149	49.7%74 W · 75 L	+10.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17c7…44cebacked Under	54c	236.96$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Under	45c	221.84$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.86	187	61%114 W · 73 L	+18.3wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	47c	214.88$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.1	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over	52c	212.28$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.31	272	55.9%152 W · 120 L	+36.1wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Under	43c	197.16$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.12	174	48.9%85 W · 89 L	+9.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Under	46c	191$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.65	373	52.5%196 W · 177 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	246	49.2%121 W · 125 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Under	44c	187.4$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.84	305	47.2%144 W · 161 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x933a…8a61backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x972d…b581backed Over	57c	173.16$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.46	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb175…fd32backed Under	45c	172.14$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.03	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under	48c	166.01$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.76	735	36.3%267 W · 468 L	-32.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over	55c	151.04$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.37	722	47.2%341 W · 381 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Under	46c	142.08$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.74	197	54.3%107 W · 90 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Under	44c	131.03$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	318	53.1%169 W · 149 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d0…1855backed Over	55c	127.27$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.27	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under	44c	127$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.88	249	47.4%118 W · 131 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked Under	42c	117$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.72	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-4.3wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23d1…214ebacked Over	58c	103.62$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.62	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…a2d5backed Over	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	157	58%91 W · 66 L	+9.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x042d…0720backed Over	24c	99.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.99	152	46.1%70 W · 82 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	285	35.8%102 W · 183 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa247…7175backed Over	45c	88.89$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.89	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	52c	88$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.24	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under	43c	81.28$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	637	45.4%289 W · 348 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under	46c	80.43$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	246	54.1%133 W · 113 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1e…f4edbacked Over	55c	78.13$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.13	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2da…fdd7backed Over	56c	77.43$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.34	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfe…dba6backed Over	55c	70.2$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.59	97	34%33 W · 64 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under	79c	64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.34	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa4…4e04backed Over	53c	60.38$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.38	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x58f9…7d44backed Under	73c	60$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.8	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa590…d2bdbacked Over	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over	51c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	147	50.3%74 W · 73 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7821…7945backed Under	46c	55.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b54…09c5backed Over	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…3e1fbacked Over	55c	49.98$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.49	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5851…8ed8backed Under	69c	47.95$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Under	42c	44.28$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	94	50%47 W · 47 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e3…126cbacked Under	52c	40.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Under	47c	32.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.43	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b3…d0eebacked Under	43c	31.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed Under	43c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	224	52.7%118 W · 106 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under	76c	23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	152	52.6%80 W · 72 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Under	56c	22.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	215	65.1%140 W · 75 L	+16.4wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc67d…6be7backed Under	71c	21.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	111	51.4%57 W · 54 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Brazil vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5this page
Brazil vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 0.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5Over won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 4.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 5.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 6.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 7.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 8.5Under won
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceNorway won
Brazil vs. Norway: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Brazil vs. Norway: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)Norway won
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)Norway won
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)Norway won
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)Norway won
Spread: Brazil (-5.5)Norway won
Spread: Norway (-1.5)Brazil won
Spread: Norway (-2.5)Brazil won
Spread: Norway (-3.5)Brazil won
Spread: Norway (-4.5)Brazil won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Brazil vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event