Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b561389414718a9fa9d71483ecbde3892b8dbf017355f8ec3bcfa441725ca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 58c | 4,333$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.95 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 47c | 4,117$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 12c | 3,456$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.94 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 9c | 2,251$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 40c | 2,028$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 9c | 1,858$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 17c | 1,710$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.25 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,700$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,648$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…6a89backed No | 63c | 1,533$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 68c | 1,441$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 60c | 1,225$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 46c | 1,215$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.11 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 39c | 1,204$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…5319backed Yes | 37c | 1,087$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,013$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 61c | 965$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed No | 52c | 962.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 899.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…e075backed No | 76c | 870.41$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 38c | 833$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 687.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 58c | 642$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 42c | 642$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 639.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 599.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 3c | 540$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 533.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 46c | 520$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 5c | 506.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 61c | 498$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 38c | 492$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 62c | 492$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed Yes | 53c | 490.97$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 39c | 482.78$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 61c | 478$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 39c | 478$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 39c | 476$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 61c | 476$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 61c | 470$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes | 5c | 457.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 77c | 451.73$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 446.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 3c | 446.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…4096backed No | 45c | 445.25$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 54c | 432$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 62c | 418$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 62c | 415$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 39c | 414.42$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 12c | 403.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…aafebacked Yes | 48c | 343.75$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 42c | 334.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 35c | 308.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.56 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 55c | 300$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 57c | 298$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 13c | 277.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 42c | 274$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 53c | 250.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 8c | 240.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 60c | 240$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed No | 58c | 231.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cf…c8c6backed Yes | 44c | 229.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 36c | 222$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 41c | 213$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 59c | 213$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 48c | 208.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…3b5cbacked Yes | 48c | 207.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 57c | 205.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 22c | 195$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 59c | 189.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…fec3backed No | 57c | 181.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 34c | 178.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 42c | 178.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…4fa8backed Yes | 57c | 175.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 175.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 54c | 172.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 39c | 171.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 168.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6083backed Yes | 18c | 168.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 66c | 165.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes | 43c | 164.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…23c8backed No | 61c | 163.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ceb…be53backed No | 49c | 162.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 42c | 159.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 61c | 156$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 148.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…7cf3backed No | 55c | 141.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 137$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…1cc6backed Yes | 38c | 133.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 57c | 132$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb02…05d7backed Yes | 41c | 126.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 46c | 118.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 29c | 118.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.