Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6c66bd1db7f15797e185c01a99c5c60dc659f31b2822c759c68e61beb79123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 7c | 2,170$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,703$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.12 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32c…56b9backed Yes | 35c | 1,417$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 47c | 1,020$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 969.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 47c | 962$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 923.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked No | 58c | 910$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 894.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 47c | 871$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.37 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 53c | 847$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…19ebbacked Yes | 23c | 755.77$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 45c | 717.45$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.98 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 2c | 700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 47c | 657$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.79 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 53c | 657$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 42c | 591$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 51c | 555.78$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 53c | 513$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 53c | 490$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 32c | 461.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 47c | 449$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 53c | 449$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.03 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…066ebacked Yes | 49c | 439.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked No | 78c | 429.67$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 38c | 416.44$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.22 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…fe46backed Yes | 29c | 406.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 54c | 405.23$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.43 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 400$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 399.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 14c | 380$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 53c | 369$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 47c | 369$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 47c | 361$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 53c | 361$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 357.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed No | 56c | 355.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…1e76backed Yes | 29c | 350$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 52c | 347.31$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.76 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 53c | 339$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 21c | 329.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 53c | 327$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 78c | 325$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 42c | 319$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…fec3backed No | 55c | 315.09$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 16c | 302.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 51c | 288.31$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0c32backed Yes | 40c | 279$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…7d9fbacked No | 60c | 274.94$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 274.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 52c | 269$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 48c | 269$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 264.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6543…ecbabacked Yes | 42c | 240.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed No | 66c | 236.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed No | 65c | 230.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 54c | 230.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 44c | 226.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 45c | 221.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 74c | 220$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…bab9backed Yes | 16c | 218.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 47c | 213.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 53c | 205$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 39c | 201.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 198.92$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…aa1fbacked No | 77c | 194.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 190.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 20c | 188.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 47c | 186$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 14c | 179.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed No | 57c | 175.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 30c | 174.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 168.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 38c | 168.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…413dbacked No | 62c | 164.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 24c | 163.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…2277backed No | 54c | 163.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…995ebacked Yes | 47c | 157.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 55c | 156.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…c836backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes | 11c | 150.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…4595backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 55c | 145.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 53c | 139.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 38c | 137.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 136.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…4096backed No | 54c | 131.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 124.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 67c | 121.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…bc2bbacked Yes | 28c | 120.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…63edbacked No | 56c | 105.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 27c | 102.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 69c | 101.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.