Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0f1d9bb090402e7efbb558948ccc3f6afc33266a8b4f36a1ee31b5c9bf20e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 50c | 3,937$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 17c | 2,104$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,852$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 76c | 1,800$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.77 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,797$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 45c | 1,771$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 25c | 1,568$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.22 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,526$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,398$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,249$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,100$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.77 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 31c | 1,032$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.08 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 32c | 999.93$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.48 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 75c | 918.02$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.76 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 66c | 909.07$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.03 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 42c | 861.17$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 55c | 860$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…f368backed Yes | 45c | 860$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 56c | 800$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 66c | 774.68$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 31c | 755.42$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.42 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes | 12c | 720.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…c13bbacked No | 50c | 689.09$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 648.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 53c | 648$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5e00backed Yes | 4c | 627.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 47c | 605$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked Yes | 42c | 603$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…d7c0backed No | 42c | 574.46$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…4748backed Yes | 25c | 563.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed No | 45c | 551.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 16c | 517.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 45c | 505.57$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 503.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed No | 56c | 458.54$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 39c | 420$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb493…f55cbacked Yes | 58c | 405.72$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.26 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 55c | 404.1$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.94 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 61c | 397.03$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.76 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 393.09$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.87 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…8322backed Yes | 47c | 387.81$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 35c | 381.43$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 54c | 379.01$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 34c | 373.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes | 19c | 344.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa6…e8b6backed No | 41c | 335.14$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 58c | 326$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 38c | 310.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 43c | 310$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.36 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed No | 49c | 308.53$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…f9c1backed Yes | 34c | 295.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 58c | 277$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…b3a3backed No | 76c | 265.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 11c | 262.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…be79backed Yes | 37c | 259.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 258.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 44c | 257.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 28c | 256.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…ab24backed Yes | 39c | 253.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 253.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 64c | 252.94$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…72debacked No | 46c | 241.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 240.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 239.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 47c | 211.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 50c | 207.94$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 61c | 205.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked Yes | 59c | 204.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…c209backed Yes | 49c | 196.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked Yes | 53c | 190.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 27c | 187.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Yes | 73c | 186.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…0bcbbacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 53c | 176.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 43c | 173.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 13c | 169.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…e6b4backed Yes | 61c | 167.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6083backed Yes | 54c | 163.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 59c | 158.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 143.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 68c | 136$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…03b4backed Yes | 8c | 135.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed Yes | 36c | 131.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…e20ebacked No | 43c | 129.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked No | 46c | 129.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 116.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…ebb5backed Yes | 54c | 110.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…aafebacked No | 43c | 109.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 73c | 104.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 49c | 102.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 42c | 99.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…0d4abacked No | 61c | 99.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…9e77backed No | 61c | 98.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.