Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c39c86eaa15247b6d263826cadc62cce982dcb19cdc80bfd5dceb1d082f8d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,714$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.88 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,223$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…550abacked Yes | 35c | 2,106$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,516$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.09 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 52c | 1,360$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 1,356$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 48c | 1,041$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 6c | 999.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 51c | 956$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 45c | 909$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 58c | 855$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 51c | 837$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 49c | 837$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 37c | 831$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1bc3backed No | 62c | 805.61$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 48c | 803$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 49c | 795$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.45 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 28c | 763$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 42c | 706$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 55c | 691$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 63c | 647$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 49c | 631$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.14 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 61c | 612$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed Yes | 41c | 596$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 51c | 588.12$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…7d59backed No | 62c | 564.55$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…c13bbacked No | 62c | 553.48$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 52c | 543$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked No | 53c | 496$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 47c | 496$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 58c | 486$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 72c | 466$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 454.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 52c | 446$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 445.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 47c | 427.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 50c | 412$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 410.15$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.83 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 67c | 384.43$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 51c | 372$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 39c | 352$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes | 40c | 348.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked No | 58c | 343.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 35c | 342.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed No | 55c | 331$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…6279backed Yes | 45c | 331$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…3b5cbacked Yes | 46c | 311.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed Yes | 31c | 301.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 72c | 297$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 49c | 296$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 49c | 295$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 50c | 293$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 50c | 293$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c36…2c6dbacked Yes | 56c | 278.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 38c | 278.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 46c | 272$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 40c | 270.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 55c | 242.04$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…0593backed Yes | 31c | 241.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…a02cbacked No | 55c | 240.67$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 54c | 233$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 231.62$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 53c | 224$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 47c | 224$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 61c | 223$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 31c | 214.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 67c | 195.44$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 23cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…8839backed Yes | 50c | 189.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 65c | 186.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 48c | 186$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…e309backed No | 63c | 182.92$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed Yes | 41c | 178.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 56c | 178.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 51c | 177$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 164.54$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed No | 61c | 151.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…2f0dbacked No | 58c | 149.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…1031backed Yes | 35c | 142.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 58c | 140.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 43c | 134.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…66c2backed Yes | 44c | 113.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc0…7ea2backed No | 50c | 105.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 23c | 104.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 100.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…c836backed Yes | 36c | 100.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…2dfbbacked No | 62c | 100.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.