Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcbab72cafba8b07f2b2e3ba3bbd12160f31086764c77673592f445a35d2ce7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 69c | 2,683$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.85 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,194$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.79 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 77c | 1,782$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.76 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,671$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 52c | 1,269$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…5702backed Yes | 53c | 1,175$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 43c | 1,161$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.77 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 37cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…b53cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,157$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 54c | 1,099$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.84 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…9a34backed Yes | 11c | 1,068$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 71c | 935$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.84 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes | 51c | 900$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 882.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 5c | 799.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 41c | 796.6$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.19 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 18c | 792.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…0bcbbacked Yes | 2c | 781.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 755.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 59c | 728$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 46c | 712$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.52 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 59c | 700$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.74 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 689.84$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.24 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 75c | 687.05$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.35 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 15c | 659.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 52c | 656$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 41c | 653.41$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.87 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 640.21$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 47c | 633.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 631.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed No | 77c | 621.61$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…c13bbacked No | 58c | 604.88$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 57c | 593$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 26c | 579.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.74 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 54c | 569$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 33c | 563.08$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.14 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 64c | 557.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 57c | 537$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 65c | 531.3$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 65c | 507.12$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.62 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 54c | 464$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 454.91$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.46 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 79c | 450.25$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 433.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 64c | 432.01$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 431.61$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 61c | 429.17$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.74 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 41c | 402$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 30c | 399.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 46c | 379$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 53c | 365.73$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 48c | 354$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…2318backed Yes | 23c | 340.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 15c | 339.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 19c | 317.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.69 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1bc3backed No | 70c | 306.85$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 39c | 303.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 41c | 302$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 48c | 302$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 10c | 279.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…ab24backed Yes | 40c | 276.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 39c | 274$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked No | 61c | 274$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 55c | 272.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 33c | 266.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.92 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 256.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…612abacked No | 55c | 250.44$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 54c | 248$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 244.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 49c | 227$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 51c | 227$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked No | 53c | 211$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 47c | 211$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 79c | 209.63$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…a4c8backed Yes | 48c | 207.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 34c | 196.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4a…ae97backed No | 64c | 194.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked No | 52c | 194.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked Yes | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 42c | 178.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…e80fbacked No | 55c | 164.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed No | 60c | 162.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 32c | 157.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 37c | 150.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 21c | 149.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…a02cbacked No | 65c | 149.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 53c | 148.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 9c | 142.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +316.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 27c | 137.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…5215backed Yes | 37c | 135.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…afa2backed Yes | 10c | 121.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 40c | 121.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…5609backed No | 59c | 121.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 40c | 114.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 113.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed No | 74c | 113.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked No | 21c | 110.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.