Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae9defd9c17fc91dabf1bc73ee8ab68ee9682736312960f09ec2bd7b8665c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcf…dff4backed Yes | 46c | 7,117$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 14c | 7,045$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a0…fb3cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,849$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…d3bbbacked No | 54c | 3,715$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730f…952cbacked No | 54c | 3,402$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5653…7334backed Yes | 2c | 2,301$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,061$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.45 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…086fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,425$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 49c | 1,392$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 56c | 1,384$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 32c | 1,317$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,285$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 40c | 1,097$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.11 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 44c | 951$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 817.43$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.92 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes | 45c | 779$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 40c | 730$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Yes | 37c | 709$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 8c | 684.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 46c | 609.85$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 50c | 594.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 33c | 565$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 57c | 529.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.1 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 525.43$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 64c | 480$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 63c | 456$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed No | 69c | 452.69$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.07 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 55c | 445$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 41c | 439.48$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.05 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 68c | 435.32$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 70c | 419$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 73c | 418.13$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 412.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 37c | 411.92$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…0c70backed Yes | 32c | 399.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 32c | 399.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 36c | 393.76$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 55c | 351$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 67c | 349$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 11c | 337.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc731…669cbacked Yes | 26c | 321.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes | 39c | 310.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 44c | 301$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 39c | 281.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 51c | 277$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 269.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…8839backed Yes | 51c | 262.46$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 260.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 63c | 253$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 77c | 248.85$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…e80fbacked No | 67c | 247.45$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 67c | 236$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…612abacked No | 70c | 228.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 21c | 221.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…23b3backed Yes | 45c | 220.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 217.27$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…a6aabacked No | 69c | 217.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked Yes | 42c | 216.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 53c | 210.94$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…9732backed Yes | 36c | 210.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 203.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed No | 60c | 201.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 58c | 195.36$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…fe27backed Yes | 32c | 187.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…f762backed No | 55c | 183.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…cd5fbacked No | 56c | 178.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 48c | 175.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed No | 57c | 174.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 153.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648b…8c77backed No | 54c | 152.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 23c | 152.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 152.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…5de0backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 42c | 149.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 40c | 148.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 142.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…a8ffbacked Yes | 36c | 141.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 26c | 140.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 69c | 138.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c4…fe8bbacked No | 55c | 137.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 60c | 137.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…6fd5backed No | 66c | 123.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes | 34c | 122.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 53c | 118$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 33c | 116.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 51c | 115$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…9d0cbacked No | 70c | 113.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +221.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 63c | 112.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 111.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 110.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 42c | 105.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed Yes | 16c | 102.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 101.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…5609backed No | 56c | 100.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 50c | 100.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.