Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c367a62cb349e7672756ce3bf4989a5230d2fd5bbeccd2db04aa63ef9d98fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfc7…9c66backed Yes | 1c | 3,480$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 54c | 2,911$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.27 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…e8c8backed Yes | 0c | 2,901$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…459fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 75c | 1,834$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.97 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,354$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,334$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.86 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,248$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,247$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 62c | 1,235$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 60c | 1,218$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,168$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.82 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 64c | 1,136$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed No | 48c | 1,053$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 970$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 61c | 945$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 52c | 920$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 48c | 915$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 12c | 897.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 35c | 886$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 63c | 855$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…d343backed Yes | 49c | 853.54$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 39c | 803$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 48c | 797$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed Yes | 60c | 794$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 62c | 777$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed Yes | 62c | 769$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 61c | 764.76$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…fee6backed Yes | 53c | 756$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 62c | 748$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 36c | 722$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 6c | 708.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 44c | 705.47$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.47 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 38c | 678$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 39c | 676$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 48c | 674$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed No | 58c | 668.62$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 40c | 659$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 65c | 655$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 52c | 649$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 65c | 641$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2e…b704backed Yes | 55c | 607.57$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 599.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked Yes | 64c | 597$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed No | 35c | 576$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 37c | 566$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 38c | 561$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…aeb2backed Yes | 9c | 543.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 38c | 537$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 39c | 518.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 517.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 38c | 517$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 40c | 504$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…c080backed No | 50c | 501.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 494.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 59c | 479.78$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.45 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 64c | 474$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 36c | 474$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.36 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 52c | 466$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 59c | 454$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 41c | 454$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked No | 52c | 449$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…8ce7backed No | 49c | 448.92$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 39c | 441$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 51c | 439$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.89 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 49c | 439$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked No | 40c | 427$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 52c | 422.45$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…4a84backed Yes | 40c | 412.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 52c | 411$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 38c | 407$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.34 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 62c | 407$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.34 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0b…e325backed No | 50c | 397.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…9530backed Yes | 42c | 395.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 59c | 390$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 41c | 390$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed Yes | 24c | 384.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…2ce6backed No | 62c | 373.63$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 19c | 371.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 48c | 366$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 38c | 366$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 38c | 352$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 31c | 344.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…e9c5backed Yes | 56c | 343$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…a892backed No | 44c | 343$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 36c | 342$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 61c | 337$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.57 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked No | 39c | 337$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 18c | 325$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 46c | 321.62$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 36c | 318$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.52 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 38c | 309$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.83 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 52c | 304.31$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 36c | 279$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 39c | 270$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.