TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff0c…36ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Premier League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 55 out of 100; worst IPO at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$201.96
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$833Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$489.51
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$119.52
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$444.72
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$67.2
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.07
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.13
Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20.88
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$236.64
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+89.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+267.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$161.6
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$492.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$194.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)backed North Carolina Central Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$956Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$390.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+35.1%+$25.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Serena Brancale win Sanremo 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$96.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$55.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$535.86
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.